NFL picks 2018, Week 13: Experts are all-in on road teams this week

The toughest thing about this week’s picks is so many of these games draw you to the road team. The Saints at the Cowboys, the Rams at the Lions ... it should be obvious which team is going to win a one-sided affair like that.

Hell, even ol’ Jerry Jones himself pointed out just how difficult it is — “Each play, we’ve got to think it’s the Super Bowl play.” Has he seen Jason Garrett coach a game lately?

My point here is this is an easy week to fall into a trap. At least eight of the games this week, half of them (no more byes), all look like layups for the road team. The trouble you run into making those picks is that home teams have won more than 60 percent of their games this season so far, 106-68-2. It stands to reason that one, at least, of those easy road picks is going to come away with an ‘L’ this week.

But which one?

Nobody on our panel is picking the Cowboys to beat the Saints or the Bengals to beat the Broncos (and it’s not like the Broncos are any real great shake of a team). The only one picking the Rams to lose in Detroit is the coin, which also picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers in Green Bay (at least the coin gets Mike McCarthy).

See, turns out it was a huge mistake to pick the Saints over the Cowboys. In one of the better Thursday games of the season, the Cowboys upset the Saints to keep them in command of the NFC East ... and upend everyone’s picks!

We have two picks for the Bills to win in Miami. That is definitely believable. They have the defense and they’re playing the Dolphins. There are a couple of picks for the Buccaneers to beat the Panthers. That could be a pretty high-scoring affair the way both of those defenses are playing.

There is one pick, from a human, for the Jaguars to stop the Colts’ win streak at five games. And of all the games on the docket this week, that one has me wondering the most. The Jags FINALLY benched Blake Bortles. Their effort last week against the Bills pissed off everyone who has any say in the organization, so there’s some extra motivation this week. Cody Kessler might not be the second coming of Peyton Manning, but he doesn’t have to be above average to offer a step up from Bortles. The main reason I picked against the Jags is they won’t have Leonard Fournette, assuming his suspension is upheld.

Only two votes for the Chargers against the Steelers, in Pittsburgh. As much as we’d like to see the Chargers win that game, the Steelers haven’t lost back-to-back games since 2016. Then again, if Ben Roethlisberger throws the ball the way he did last week ...

The rules

OK, let’s get to the picks. Our guest this week is Jeremy Reisman, the managing editor over at Pride of Detroit, SB Nation’s home for all things Detroit Lions.

The computer picks come to us via OddsShark. The coin is a quarter from 2007 that gets flipped every Tuesday morning, heads for the home team. Panelists are allowed to make changes for up to two of their picks by Friday to account for injuries, etc.