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Super Bowl 53 odds: Chalk got us to conference championship weekend, but look for one upset on Sunday

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It’s a chalk conference championship weekend, but there is still room for an upset.

NFL: New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The 2019 Divisional Round is a wrap, and are headed into the AFC and NFC title games in six days. The New Orleans Saints will host the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs will host the New England Patriots in a matchup of the top four seeds in the playoffs. The Saints opened as a three point favorite, but the line climbed to 3.5 points by the end of Monday. The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line came down to a field goal by the end of Monday.

Super Bowl odds have been updated following the divisional round, and it fairly chalky at Betonline.ag.

New Orleans Saints: +175
Kansas City Chiefs: +275
New England Patriots: +325
Los Angeles Rams: +350

At Betonline.ag, you can also bet on the exact matchup. It follows the chalk as well, with Chiefs-Saints as the favorite and Patriots-Rams as the longest shot.

Chiefs vs. Saints: +160
Patriots vs. Saints: +260
Chiefs vs. Rams: +325
Patriots vs. Rams: +475

You could make an argument for all four of these matchups. Patrick Mahomes looked like a playoff veteran in the Chiefs win over the Colts and this might just be a different team that can avoid the disappointments of Kansas City past. On the other hand, the Patriots put together their best performance of the year on Sunday in destroying the Chargers. They did not look like an old team that is in the final stage of the dynasty. And right now, they’re the more balanced of the two teams. The Patriots did beat the Chiefs earlier this year, but an early season three-point shootout win is not overly determinative at this point.

In the NFC, the Saints beat the Rams at home, and are the most balanced team remaining in the playoffs. At the same time, their offense struggled with consistency against Philadelphia, and if they fall behind the Rams 14-0, it won’t be nearly as easy to get back into the game. If the Rams had lost to the Cowboys, we would have heard an unending round of questions about whether Sean McVay could get over the playoff hump. That could remove a potential mental block as well.

Chiefs-Patriots feels like it could be a passing of the guard game, but after Sunday’s performance, for the time being I think they’ve got one last gasp in them. Tom Brady and Sony Michel should have no trouble with that Chiefs defense, while Bill Belichick should be able to devise something solid in his second go-around against Patrick Mahomes.

Saints-Rams does not have quite the same passing of the guard feel even though we have the Brees-Goff matchup. I think we see another shootout (or at least really hope for it) that the Saints hang on to win. If you can get the Rams at +3.5, grab it, but the Saints will hang on for the win.

So there you have it. Patriots vs. Saints would be my Super Bowl matchup coming out of the conference championship games. I’d lean Saints to win, but for now we’ll just wait and see what the AFC and NFC title games bring us.