The New England Patriots have been pushing a narrative that nobody believes in them, and they have had to overcome the odds to get to Super Bowl 53. Unfortunately, I have some bad news for Tom Brady & Co.
The Patriots did open as a one-point underdog to the Los Angeles Rams immediately after the AFC Championship Game. However, it took mere minutes for the line to move to favor the Patriots. It swung to the Patriots’ side, and by Monday morning was at Patriots -2.5. In the week since, money has poured in heavily on the Patriots, and sportsbooks find themselves awaiting some kind of rush on the Rams.
With kickoff 1 week away @Jay_Rood and @MGMRaceSports are still waiting on that Rams money...— Scott Shelton (@scottatmirage) January 27, 2019
67% of point spread tix on Patriots...
89% of point spread money on Patriots...( 7 figure pool )
5 figure wagers
Patriots -2.5 56.5 -140
The line at most sportsbooks is sitting at 2.5 point, but you can find a field goal if you are willing to pay for it. Generally the line will pay out at -110 (bet $110 to win $100). William Hill sportsbooks and Stations Casinos sportsbooks are offering the Rams at a field goal at -120, and Bovada is offering it at -115.
A field goal is one of the most common results in the NFL, and so three- and 3.5-point lines are particularly valuable to bettors. Moving a line from 2.5 to three points can swing a lot of action on the underdog, and so a lot of sportsbooks are holding back from making the move to a field goal. The South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas saw just how that can happen when they dipped their toe in the water at a field-goal line.
Veteran bookmaker Chris Andrews, the South Point’s sportsbook director, moved New England to -3 in the middle of the afternoon Tuesday and immediately attracted a “flood” of money on the Rams. More than $100,000 in wagers came in on L.A. in 16 minutes, before the South Point moved the line back to Patriots -2.5.
”It didn’t take long,” Andrews told ESPN.
The Super Bowl is still six days away — plenty of time for something to push this line to a field goal across the board. The teams have arrived in Atlanta and will begin their practice week.
Barring somebody getting arrested the night before the game or an unexpected injury, any changes in the line will be due to sharp bettors that have bided their time jumping into this. The line is unlikely to drop from 2.5 points, so if you want to get money on the Rams, you should either hit up the three points at Bovada or William Hill, or wait and see where these other sportsbooks go with the line over the next six days.