NFL Wild Card weekend is upon us with four stand alone games to gamble on! Got to love it. I’ll give you leans for all four of them. I like some more than others, so I’ll lead with my favorites and go down from there.
I love the Chargers in this rematch. In their first contest, the Ravens offense scored only 16 points. The Chargers were on the march towards the end zone to possibly win the game before Antonio Gates fumbled which led to a defensive touchdown and the Ravens 22-10 victory in Los Angeles.
Generally speaking, a rematch favors the losing team as well. The Chargers will know exactly how the Ravens will try to defend them, and they can figure out ways to make it work this time around.
Also, for as much as people love the Ravens offense with Lamar Jackson, they only scored 16 against the Chargers. They stopped them the first time. Lastly, the Chargers have played well on the road this season. They won in Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Kansas City.
This number just feels too high for the defending Super Bowl champions. The Eagles are hot right now, and for whatever reason, they play best in these situations under Nick Foles. I know Foles has some banged up ribs, but I expect him to play well. The Eagles have an outstanding offensive line that can physically match up with the Bears defensive line, especially with Lane Johnson versus Khalil Mack.
Another reason I like the Eagles to cover is Mitchell Trubisky, who’s so up and down. The Eagles might have a bad secondary, but they can stop the run, something I expect the Bears to try to establish early. I think Bears win, but the Eagles will cover.
The Colts are better than the Texans. They are eighth in team DVOA while the Texans are 11th. More specifically, the Colts are 10th in offense and defense. The Texans are 21st and seventh in those units, respectively.
The Colts have won nine out of their last 10, including a recent win in Houston. In their first matchup, the Colts lost a late game in overtime when they were a much different team. Andrew Luck is better than Deshaun Watson. The Colts have the better offensive line, and while the Texans have much better receivers, I think the Colts pass rush can bother Watson enough where he can’t be as effective.
I think the Cowboys are better suited to win this game than I first thought a few weeks ago. They play better at home, have a fierce pass rush and can run the football. Well, so do the Seahawks. They are going to play ball control and try running the ball. Seattle is seventh in points per drive while the Cowboys are 17th. Both defenses allow nearly the same on defense for points per drive. So give me the Seahawks here.