Earlier this week, I made a few predictions about what I think will happen in the NFL this offseason. How the Steelers’ drama with Antonio Brown plays out and where Le’Veon Bell will sign are obviously two major storylines that we’re all watching unfold. But are they the BIGGEST? Not necessarily.
Here are what I consider two of the biggest questions this offseason.
What do the Cardinals do with the first pick in the draft?
Without being over the top, this is clearly the No. 1 storyline for the 2019 NFL Draft and maybe even the offseason. All dominos will fall after this pick.
Last season, the Cardinals traded up to take Josh Rosen out of UCLA with the 10th pick in the draft. His rookie season was a wreck, but it wasn’t all his fault. The Cardinals had a poor offense and poor offensive scheme. Rosen was asked to make chicken salad from chicken shit, and he didn’t. The Cardinals fired their coaching staff and hired an offensive mind in Kliff Kingsbury.
Kingsbury is thought of a traditional air raid offensive scheme coach, but we’ve seen him move more toward a hybrid air raid, almost (but not really), close to how Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma has morphed his offense. Riley and Kingsbury use the quarterback as a multi-purpose weapon, a player who can threaten a defense with his legs while still throwing the ball enough to satisfy a heavy passing offense. That’s not Rosen.
No matter how often the general manager, president/owner, and/or Kingsbury say Rosen is their guy for the future, I don’t believe it. Here’s what I think WILL happen.
The Cardinals will draft Kyler Murray first overall
So why Kyler Murray at No. 1? Kingsbury heaped praise on Murray during a game week when his Texas Tech squad was playing Oklahoma last season. Compliments are given to opponents during those game weeks, but this comment was above and beyond the usual praise. There’s clearly an appreciation there, and Kingsbury has imagined his offense with Murray.
Well, now his team can draft that player — which I believe the Cardinals will do — as he fits what Kingsbury wants in a quarterback.
How does Josh Rosen fit into this equation?
In this scenario, he’s not the starter anymore and the Cardinals have multiple options on how they go about moving Rosen to a backup role or getting rid of him.
1. Keep him on the roster as the backup. With the rookie wage scale, this option isn’t terrible. Rosen’s cap number for 2019 is slightly under $4 million, which is a decent number for a backup quarterback. He’d be able to learn under Kingsbury and be ready if Murray wasn’t able to start Week 1 or for injury.
Fair or unfair, there was a stigma out of college that Rosen was tough to work with, and this option could be rough in the quarterback room if Rosen doesn’t handle it like a professional.
2. Release Rosen. This option is extremely unlikely. If the Cardinals released Rosen they’d have nearly $14.5 million in dead money on the books, according to Over the Cap. I can’t see this option being a viable one.
3. Trade Rosen. This option is clearly the one the Cardinal will pursue. A trade of Rosen would produce an $8 million cap hit, but the Cardinals would get something back for Rosen.
People are already thinking Rosen is a bust. However, Rosen’s rookie season was similar to Jared Goff’s disaster of a rookie season and I think in the right system, Rosen would flourish.
I’ve always been “higher” on Rosen than most. There are teams who believe in Rosen like I do, but their price tag might be something that would be embarrassing for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are highly unlikely to receive a first-round pick for Rosen unless the New England Patriots think Rosen can be the next Tom Brady. That would be the 32nd pick. Would the Cardinals accept a mid second-round pick, or even a package that included a third-rounder as the highest pick? Yikes. It would be an awful transaction for the Cardinals.
The 10th pick in 2018 goes for something far less in 2019, but when you draft a quarterback at 10 without the infrastructure to help him succeed and then fire everyone, that’s on you. Could the Cardinals get bailed out with a future first-rounder? I guess, but that’s hard to predict.
Will the Giants trade Odell Beckham Jr.?
I sure hope not. Jay Glazer, maybe the most connected media member in the NFL, was asked during a Q&A for the Athletic for a bold offseason prediction. He answered with the Giants trading Odell Beckham Jr.. For Glazer to even suggest that means there’s been aggressive talks about moving OBJ in the past, or even now. Then, new NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms shared that New England was heavily pursuing Beckham before the start of the 2018 season.
If y’all have read me for a while, you know that I don’t value high-paid running backs and wide receivers like most. I don’t think you need one to win a Super Bowl, and I’ve been proven right year after year. That being said, if you have the major parts of your team set, adding, or giving an extension to a game-changer at either of those positions is totally fine with me. I’d normally be in a favor of a team trading a player like Beckham for multiple high-level draft picks.
However, this case is special. Odell is a special player. We can point to examples where he’s WON the game for the Giants: 2016 against Dallas and the Ravens, for example. Short slant, long run, ball game. He’s beloved in the locker room for his personality, work ethic, and drive to win. It would a disaster for the Giants if Beckham leaves.
If the Giants keep Eli Manning for one more season, or draft Dwayne Haskins at No. 6, they will need a player like Beckham to help those quarterbacks. I just can’t see the benefit for the Giants in trading him.