The 2019 NFL Draft is now just a few short weeks away, and there is still plenty of uncertainty about how things will play out.
Just start at the top, for instance. For more than a month now, the Arizona Cardinals have been linked to Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Kyler Murray with the first overall pick. Now the Cardinals are using their 30 pre-draft visits on players in contention for the top pick. That includes Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa, who not too long ago was the consensus top selection.
Are the Cardinals wavering, or just doing due diligence considering Bosa could be picked by NFC West rival San Francisco? Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver is also getting an interview with Arizona, which would make sense in a trade-down scenario.
Murray is still the choice for the Cardinals in this week’s mock draft, but maybe it’s not quite as a set in stone as we think. That’s just how the first pick could play out. The other 31 in the first round are just as wide open.
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Offseason needs: Interior defensive line, wide receiver, tight end, slot cornerback
How exactly did Murray ascend to being the likely first overall pick in the draft? It goes far beyond his Heisman accolade and superstar athleticism. Murray isn’t the presumed top pick simply because he can run fast, or because he reminds people of some combination of Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and prime Michael Vick. Murray is just a damn good passer.
An advanced stats dive in the Sports Info Solutions Rookie Handbook has Murray rated the highest in six different categories at the position. That includes things like on-target percentage (basically the percent of catchable throws), pass yards per attempt, and plain old passer rating. Pro Football Focus rates Murray the best at completion percent against pressure and second in total adjusted completion percentage. If your eyes don’t tell you Murray is a legit quarterback, the numbers do.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Offseason needs: Safety, edge defender, wide receiver, cornerback
Whether the 49ers go with Bosa, or Alabama’s Quinnen Williams, they really can’t go wrong with an elite defender at No. 2 overall. Bosa may have missed most of last season with a core muscle injury, but he’s an exceptional all-around talent. He combines an impressive first step with excellent hand usage and bend to beat blockers on the edge. He has plenty of power too, and drives his legs through contact. Bosa should quickly become one of the NFL’s better players on the defensive side of the ball.
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Offseason needs: Offensive tackle, edge defender, cornerback, center
Williams may not fit any of the Jets’ obvious needs in the draft, but he would give them a superstar up front who can work in multiple spots on the defensive line. It’s crazy to think that Williams wasn’t even talked about as a draft prospect at the start of the college football season. Now, he’s a top-five lock and just starting to unleash his potential.
4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
Offseason needs: Edge defender, cornerback, running back, linebacker
If Allen happens to be available for the Raiders at No. 4, he is a no-brainer selection. The Raiders have built up much of their roster this offseason, but haven’t added a premier pass rusher. Unless the Raiders surprise everyone and make a move for a quarterback, Allen should be the pick.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
Offseason needs: Safety, edge defender, linebacker, offensive line
Some prefer a defensive lineman here, but White can make a bigger impact next season and beyond. Tampa still has Gerald McCoy for at least one more season, and general manager Jason Licht just used a first-round pick last year on defensive tackle Vita Vea. He may not be so fast to commit more high draft capital to the position.
6. New York Giants: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
Offseason needs: Quarterback, offensive tackle, linebacker, edge rusher
This is where things gets interesting if you believe the report about the Giants going after a pass rusher with the No. 6 pick instead of a quarterback. Choosing Sweat over Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins would be a huge gamble, but the Giants could have an eye toward the quarterbacks in the 2020 draft.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
Offseason needs: Offensive tackle, tight end, safety, guard
The Jaguars are getting acquainted with Taylor, first meeting with him at the NFL Scouting Combine. Now they’re bringing the Florida right tackle in for a visit. That’s good news for new Jacksonville quarterback Nick Foles. He struggled when pressured, and doesn’t have the creativity or athleticism to avoid a rush.
8. Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, Edge, Florida State
Offseason needs: Tight end, linebacker, guard, wide receiver, defensive end
Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson is a fascinating option here, but a player who can rush the passer like Burns may be too good to pass up. Burns gets around the edge as fast as anyone in this draft, and he closes in a hurry.
9. Buffalo Bills: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Offseason needs: Defensive tackle, cornerback, tight end, offensive tackle
There is a chance Oliver could go in the top five picks. He’s certainly garnering some interest. Some mock drafts have him going as high as No. 4 to the Raiders, with whom he has a visit scheduled. The Cardinals, who own the first overall pick, are also bringing him in. It’s with just cause that so many teams are fascinated by Oliver. He has elite get-off at the snap and creates pressure consistently. He’s not the biggest, and his pass rush repertoire needs work, but he will make an impact early in his career.
10. Denver Broncos: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Offseason needs: Linebacker, tight end, cornerback, defensive tackle
Oliver would be the ideal choice for the Broncos, but they’ll have some good options here. If Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins is available, he would be in play despite the Broncos trading for formerly elite veteran Joe Flacco. But if Denver is committed to Flacco as the starter for a year or two, getting him a top tight end target like Hockenson is the smart, safe play.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Offseason needs: Linebacker, tight end, quarterback, offensive tackle
Michigan linebacker Devin Bush is the perfect fit for the Bengals, but it would be hard to pass up a potential franchise quarterback for a linebacker. Average Andy Dalton’s contract would let the Bengals easily release him without much repercussion. Head coach Zac Taylor could start his tenure in Cincinnati with the quarterback of his choosing.
12. Green Bay Packers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Offseason needs: Tight end, safety, defensive line, offensive line
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a tight end with 60 or more receptions since Jermichael Finley in 2012. Jimmy Graham was decent last season, but at 32, his career is winding down. Fant could find himself as Graham’s replacement and a reliable pass catcher for Rodgers.
13. Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
Offseason needs: Quarterback, offensive tackle, edge defender, defensive tackle
Haskins dropping out of the top 10 might entice a team like the Dolphins to make a trade up. But it’s clear the Dolphins need to find pass rushers in this draft. Robert Quinn has been shipped to Dallas, leaving Miami with almost nothing in terms of pass rushers. Gary, while flawed, could develop into the type of movable pass rusher new head coach Brian Flores should know how to utilize.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Offseason needs: Defensive tackle, cornerback, tight end
The Falcons may have drafted Deadrin Senat in the third round last year, but defensive tackle remains Atlanta’s biggest need heading into the draft. Grady Jarrett is only under franchise tag, and after him and Senat, the Falcons just lack talent up the middle.
15. Washington: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
Offseason needs: Left guard, wide receiver, edge rusher, offensive tackle
Going into the draft, Washington has a lot of needs. So many that it may behoove the team to pass up on a quarterback in the first round. An offensive tackle like Jonah Williams of Alabama would be in play here, but Bush could give Washington the type of speed its defense lacks.
16. Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
Offseason needs: Edge defender, offensive tackle, safety, guard
The Panthers have acquired edge rusher Bruce Irvin, but at best he’s a situational player at this point in his career. Ferrell can be the type of defensive end the Panthers need. He’s a good all-around player, with decent burst and closing speed.
17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns): Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
Offseason needs: Quarterback, offensive tackle, linebacker, edge rusher
If the Giants pass on a quarterback with the sixth pick, it just doesn’t make sense to take a player like Daniel Jones of Duke or Drew Lock of Missouri here. They’re decent players, but not franchise-changing quarterbacks. If the plan is to go into the 2020 draft looking for a quarterback, the Giants may as well stockpile as much talent as possible. Williams can play either tackle spot, and some actually prefer him as an interior offensive lineman.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Offseason needs: Guard, defensive tackle, tight end, offensive tackle
Drafting a true offensive tackle like Dillard would move veteran Riley Reiff to the inside. That might be the smarter move for Minnesota than taking a guard like Chris Lindstrom of Boston College. Reiff should be able to handle the move and upgrade the run blocking while Dillard can be a long-term fix for pass protection.
19. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury, OL, North Carolina State
Offseason needs: Guard, tight end, nose tackle, edge defender
Tennessee may have spent big on Rodger Saffold, but the interior of the offensive line still needs work. Bradbury has experience playing center and guard, after arriving at NC State as a high school tight end. Bradbury won the Rimington Trophy as college football’s best center last season, and he’s only getting better.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
Offseason needs: Cornerback, tight end, safety, wide receiver
Murphy may not be the biggest cornerback, or have the best athletic testing numbers, but he is arguably the top cornerback in this draft because of his playmaking and instincts. Murphy has shown he’s willing to come up and play the run, and he’s among the best tackling cornerbacks in the draft. Speed will beat him occasionally, but Murphy can stick with most receivers.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, DB, Florida
Offseason needs: Defensive line, guard, safety, wide receiver
There may be better cornerbacks at this point in the first round, and there may be better pure safeties. But there is no better combination of the two than Gardner-Johnson. His draft stock exploded last season after he shifted to playing the nickel, and he has experience working deeper as a safety.
22. Baltimore Ravens: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
Offseason needs: Edge rusher, wide receiver, linebacker
Although a pass rusher is a need for the Ravens, they could be hoping 2017 third-round pick Tim Williams and the underrated Matthew Judon make a leap in 2019. If that’s the case, a wide receiver is the smart play for Baltimore. Metcalf is somewhat of a boom-or-bust prospect, but he can take the top off a defense for Lamar Jackson.
23. Houston Texans: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Offseason needs: Offensive tackle, cornerback, defensive line, tight end
If the Texans pass on an offensive tackle at No. 23, a cornerback has to be the pick. Houston’s cornerback play last season was woeful, and simply adding Bradley Roby isn’t a complete fix. Williams is the type of outside speed cornerback Houston needs.
24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago): Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Offseason needs: Edge defender, cornerback, running back, linebacker
Here’s your quarterback twist of the week. The Raiders have spent the entire offseason propping up Derek Carr as the team’s franchise quarterback. But if they get to the 24th pick and Lock is still available, Jon Gruden may have a hard time saying no.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware
Offseason needs: Safety, offensive tackle, running back, defensive line
If one of the better defensive tackles drops, that has to be pick for Philadelphia. If not, a safety like Adderley could be attractive. Adderley excels in coverage, with his ability to track the ball and speed to close on a play.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Offseason needs: Defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver, defensive tackle
The Colts have T.Y. Hilton, and not much else at wide receiver. Before free agency started, the expectation was that the Colts would make a push for a big-money wide receiver. That didn’t happen, which opens the position up early in the draft for Indianapolis. Brown played on the outside at Oklahoma, but he could be dangerous for the Colts from the slot.
27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Offseason needs: Edge defender, cornerback, running back, linebacker
Jacobs would be a smart choice for the Raiders at No. 24. He would be a brilliant choice for them at No. 27. Jacobs has prototype size, speed, and vision for a running back. If the Raiders have issues at quarterback — and they could with some combination of Carr and potentially a rookie — Jacobs could become the focal point of the offense. Yes, even on one with Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams in it.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma
Offseason needs: Offensive tackle, defensive tackle, linebacker, quarterback
It’s difficult to project something other than a new starting right tackle for the Chargers. According to Pro Football Focus, current right tackle Sam Tevi finished 74th out of 80 graded offensive tackles in the NFL last season. Even if you don’t regard PFF for their grading, the Chargers need an upgrade at any measure.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Offseason needs: Edge rusher, cornerback, defensive tackle, center
The Chiefs have several holes on defense, so the pick at No. 29 will come down to player grades. In this case, it’s Baker against Louisiana Tech defensive end Jaylon Ferguson and Notre Dame defensive lineman Jerry Tillery. Of those three, Baker should carry the highest grade. Baker is a man coverage specialist who excels against smaller, quick receivers.
30. Green Bay Packers: (via New Orleans): Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas State
Offseason needs: Tight end, safety, defensive line, offensive line
The Packers smartly signed guard Billy Turner, but the offensive line could still use a top player. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga only has a year left on his contract, and guard Lane Taylor only has two. Risner — whose rough-and-tumble style seems perfect for Green Bay — could fit at either position. A safety like Deionte Thompson of Alabama could be in play here as well.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
Offseason needs: Linebacker, guard, cornerback, defensive line
Chances are the Rams will try to trade back from No. 31 to accumulate an extra pick or two. If a defensive back is the move, that’s especially true. The Rams should be able to find a starter either at safety or cornerback in the 40s. But if they hold, a player like Ya-Sin has top-32 talent.
32. New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
Offseason needs: Edge defender, tight end, defensive tackle, wide receiver
It will not be easy for Smith to replace the retired and incomparable Rob Gronkowski. While he can provide many of the same things to New England’s offense, it won’t be as high of a level. Smith is a tight end who can moved around the field, from out in the slot, to blocking on the line, and even at H-back.