Connor McDavid can still win the NHL's rookie of the year

He's historic enough to make it happen.

By Patrick Iversen Feb 12, 2016, 12:37pm EST

When Edmonton Oilers rookie phenom broke his clavicle in November, the hockey world mourned the chance at a truly historic rookie season.

After all, McDavid is one of the most highly touted rookies in NHL history. And he was already lighting up the league before he got hurt. But missing three months had to take him out of Calder Trophy consideration as the league's best rookie. Right?

Maybe we were wrong. Since returning a few weeks ago, McDavid has looked like the most spectacular player in the NHL. And after a five-point effort last night, it's time to decide if the 19-year-old still has a chance at winning the Calder after all.

I'm here to tell you it's entirely possible. Here's why.

The "what if" factor

McDavid's pace is already pretty historic. With 24 points in 19 games, his 1.26 points per game average is light years ahead of the next closest rookie (Artemi Panarin, 0.93).

And it puts him with some pretty heady modern-era company.

Rank	Player	Season	Age	Team	Position	GP	G	A	P	*P/G*
1	Wayne Gretzky*	1979-80	19	EDM	Center	79	51	86	137	1.73
2	Teemu Selanne	1992-93	22	WPG	Right Wing	84	76	56	132	1.57
3	Bernie Nicholls	1981-82	20	LAK	Center	22	14	18	32	1.45
4	Peter Stastny*	1980-81	24	QUE	Center	77	39	70	109	1.42
5	Mario Lemieux*	1984-85	19	PIT	Center	73	43	57	100	1.37
6	Neal Broten	1981-82	22	MNS	Center	73	38	60	98	1.34
7	Real Cloutier	1979-80	23	QUE	Right Wing	67	42	47	89	1.33
8	Joe Mullen*	1981-82	24	STL	Right Wing	45	25	34	59	1.31
9	Alex Ovechkin	2005-06	20	WSH	Left Wing	81	52	54	106	1.31
10	Mike Rogers	1979-80	25	HAR	Center	80	44	61	105	1.31
11	Dale Hawerchuk*	1981-82	18	WPG	Center	80	45	58	103	1.29
12	Sidney Crosby	2005-06	18	PIT	Center	81	39	63	102	1.26
13	Connor McDavid	2015-16	19	EDM	Center	19	9	15	24	*1.26*
14	Mike Bossy*	1977-78	21	NYI	Center	73	53	38	91	1.25
15	Eric Lindros	1992-93	19	PHI	Center	61	41	34	75	1.23

Sure, 19 games is a small sample size. But then you watch him do on Thursday what he's done in most of those 19 games ...

... and you start to think maybe he can already keep up a pace like that through 82 games.

After all, Panarin leads rookies with 54 points. McDavid's 1.26 P/G rate puts him at about 71 points right now if he had stayed healthy all season. Ridiculous, unsustainable rate? Sure. But for a guy like McDavid? There's no reason to think he wouldn't be battling for the Art Ross at this point.

But if you think "what if" scenarios don't play into voter's minds, then maybe they'll be swayed by ...

The recency effect

In McDavid's absence, we've had a good three months to talk and awe about the efforts of Panarin, Dylan Larkin and the like.

On one hand, that's been a good thing. Eichel and McDavid so dominated headlines before the season that we neglected to pay attention to the rest of an excellent crop of rookies. Larkin and Shayne Gostisbehere exceeded already decent expectations, while guys like Panarin and Max Domi came out of nowhere to pleasantly surprise the league. It was a much stronger class than we gave it credit for, and they all got their chance to shine.

But now they might be victims of timing. Nothing influences awards voting quite like spectacular, end-of-season performances and McDavid is certainly full of spectacle every time he touches the puck. He gets the benefit of dominating the highlights at a time when the microscope is on every playoff-hunting opponent he torches.

Sure, the other rookies have done well but we haven't seen any of them play like THIS.

Or so the thinking might go. McDavid will certainly put long-term memory to the test.

Nobody's running away with the Calder

Oh, they're all running towards it. But no one has broken from the pack yet.

For awhile it looked like Panarin would. But once Patrick Kane's streak ended, the rest of the group started catching up. Dylan Larkin turned heads at the All-Star Game, and his excellent play all year long for Detroit is getting deserved credit. Eichel and Domi are still neck-and-neck with him, though. And Gostisbehere's record-setting points streak with the Flyers is catapulting him into the discussion, as well.

The race is so up in the air that McDavid was able to come back from injury, put on two weeks of sensational performances and jump right back into the discussion as if he hadn't left it for three months. Too many special rookies means nobody can stand out. Except for McDavid.

He could break into the top five in rookie scoring

This one is actually fairly likely. McDavid is 10th, with 24 points in 19 games. Shayne Gostisbehere sits in fifth, with 29. If McDavid reaches his pace of 33 points in his remaining 26 games he'll finish with 57. None of the players in front of him (Gostisbehere, Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, Domi, Anthony Duclair, Sam Reinhart and Joonas Donskoi). It's not ridiculous to imagine McDavid blitzing past all of them to finish with more points in about 20 less games.

No Canadian playoff teams

Bear with me here. The theory is that if no Canadian teams make the playoffs, McDavid is good for at least a handful of first place Calder votes from Canadian sports writers because he's a Canadian playing on a Canadian team.

I'm just kidding.

Okay, only half-kidding.