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2013 Idaho Potato Bowl odds: Buffalo vs. San Diego State trends

The Bulls and Aztecs meet on the blue turf, with Buffalo expected to prevail.

Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego State Aztecs are just 2-6 in eight career bowl games, with a 1-5 SU record since winning the Pasadena Bowl back in 1969. And they won't beat the Buffalo Bulls in the Idaho Potato Bowl, if the Odds Shark prediction computer is accurate.

The Aztecs opened as 2.5-point underdogs, according to early Idaho Potato Bowl odds monitored by OddsShark.com. This is just the second time in Buffalo history that the team has reached a bowl. Both teams would love to add a rare bowl win to their resumes.

After starting the season off 1-2 SU and ATS, including forgivable road losses to Baylor and Ohio State, the Buffalo Bulls (Mid-Amercan, 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 OU) strung together a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Over that stretch, the Bulls averaged 36.5 points per game on offense and allowed just 8.8 points per game on defense, thoroughly dominating the competition on both sides of the ball.

Buffalo cooled off a bit down the stretch, with a 1-2 SU and ATS record over its last three games, but the well-balanced squad should get up for just its second bowl appearance ever.

San Diego State's season (Mountain West, 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 OU) got off to a terrible 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS start, including a 40-19 loss to Eastern Illinois as a 14-point favorite at home.

The Aztecs turned things around on offense when conference play began, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their first seven games against Mountain West foes while averaging 33.9 points per game. The Aztecs managed to outshoot most of their conference opponents, but their holes on defense caught up to them in a 45-19 loss to UNLV to end the regular season.

The key to this game could be Buffalo's edge on defense. The Bulls allowed just 22.3 points per game and 216.6 passing yards per game this year, while San Diego State allowed 32.3 points per game and 259.7 passing yards per game.

If the Aztecs can use this time off to prepare a solid game plan on defense, this should be a very good game between two fairly evenly matched teams.

Trends:

Both prior Potato Bowls played UNDER the total
San Diego State is 1-2-1 ATS in bowls since 1998

Computer Prediction: 34-22 Buffalo (from Odds Shark computer)

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