The New England Patriots are 4-0 in their last four games against the New York Jets and covered the spread in three of those contests. The Pats will look to continue that dominance Thursday night when they host the Jets in primetime.
The Patriots were 13.5-point favorites at home as of Wednesday, but the role of big home chalk has not been a profitable one for New England bettors over the years.
According to OddsShark.com's NFL database, the Pats have been double-digit home favorites 22 times in recent years. Their record is a bankroll-draining 6-16 against the spread in those games.
Interestingly, OddsShark.com computer prediction on the game is 22-21 New England, almost identical to their lame Week 1 victory over Buffalo.
New England did not look sharp at all in its season debut, but the people who set the NFL betting lines seldom react negatively to the Patriots. Needing a field goal at the end of regulation to pull ahead, they squeaked out a 23-21 victory over the Buffalo Bills as a 10-point road favorite.
Danny Amendola emerged as Tom Brady's go-to guy on that game winning drive, finishing with the team lead in catches (10) and receiving yards (104). But, unfortunately for the Patriots, Amendola tweaked his groin in the win and is considered questionable to play Thursday.
The Jets came into Week 1 considered by many to be one of the worst teams in football, but they got the last laugh for at least one week with an 18-17 win over Tampa Bay as a 4-point home underdog. Geno Smith played well in his NFL debut, passing for 256 yards and rushing for 47 while turning the ball over just once and the defense took care of the rest.
Was Week 1 a fluke for both of these teams, or a sign of things to come? Before Week 1, this game looked like a pretty obvious New England blowout.
But with the Patriots lacking their standard punch on offense and the Jets looking confident and sharp on defense, could the Jets make this one a game? On the other hand, Geno Smith was at home last week; will he be more mistake-prone in his first NFL road game facing a hostile crowd in New England?
These two teams last met on Thanksgiving Thursday, when the Patriots humiliated the Jets 49-19 in their own building. We lean towards the Jets using that as motivation, and playing hard enough to keep it close.
Prediction: New York Jets +12 | Computer Pick 22-21 Patriots (both indicate a Jets cover)