After starting the season off 9-0 SU and ATS, the Kansas City Chiefs went just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS down the stretch.
Kansas City enters its wild card matchup on the road against the Indianapolis Colts as a 2.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com and also riding a seven-game playoff losing streak.
Through the first half of the season, the Chiefs' excellent play was one of the NFL's top stories in 2013. But the last seven games against quality opponents revealed some worrisome trends.
Kansas City's defense held opposing teams to 17 points or less in each of the team's first nine games, but allowed 27.7 points over the last seven. On the season, the Chiefs finished just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against teams that finished with a record of above .500.
The Colts enter the postseason on a nice 3-0 SU and ATS hot streak, outscoring opponents 78-20 over that stretch. Home-field advantage could play a big role in this game. While the Colts went 5-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, they were much stronger at home with a 5-1 SU and ATS record over their last six home games, including outright upsets over Seattle and Denver.
Historically, this series has heavily favored the Colts. Indianapolis is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against the Chiefs, including a 23-7 win in Kansas City in Week 16 and a 20-13 win in Kansas City last year.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six games between the Chiefs and the Colts. And the computer is predicting a 28-24 Chiefs upset here to continue their money-making 7-1 ATS run as a road team in 2013.
While the Chiefs have not looked good over the last few weeks of the season, it is important to note that they didn't have much to play for either with a playoff spot locked up and no shot at catching Denver for the AFC West title. So, they rested their starters.
Bettors will have to decide whether Kansas City's late-season struggles were the result of the team being exposed down the stretch or just a side effect of having nothing to play for. Either way, Kansas City's defense will need to get back on track to have a shot this week on the road against Andrew Luck and the Colts.
Chiefs vs Colts Trends: (Wild Card betting angles on every game)
Chiefs are 0-7 SU and ATS in the playoffs since 1990 (three losses to Indy)
Chiefs are 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS vs the Colts since 1990
Five of past six meetings played UNDER the total
Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road in 2013
Colts are 11-3 ATS past 14 home games
Colts are 10-3 favoring the UNDER in playoffs since 2005
Computer Prediction: 28-24, Kansas City