The New England Patriots are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog. The Patriots will be in that role for just the second time since 2005 this Sunday night when they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati is a one-point favorite heading into New England at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. New England's recent struggles and Cincinnati's sound play on both sides of the ball point to the Bengals as a solid pick at -1, even on the road in this one.
The Cincinnati Bengals are off to a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS start to the season and have had a bye week to prepare for a struggling New England Patriots team. Cincinnati is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine regular season games overall and has allowed just 11 points per game this season while scoring 26.7 per game. Cincinnati passed its first road test of the year at Baltimore and will face another hostile environment on Sunday.
OddsShark Computer Prediction: Cincinnati 36.2, New England 28.2
New England hosts Cincinnati at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night at 8:30pm ET.
Through four games, New England is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the season. The Patriots managed only 16 points against an awful Oakland Raiders team in a 16-9 win at home, and followed that up with a 41-14 blowout loss on the road against Kansas City.
The pieces around Tom Brady, especially on the offensive line, are not giving the Patriots much of a chance on offense. Cincinnati will be the toughest opponent that New England has faced yet this season.
The total for Sunday night's game is set at 46. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and 2-1 in New England's last three.
Kansas City's blowout of New England confirmed that there is cause for concern for the Patriots. New England has time to right the ship and win the AFC East, but playing a team of Cincinnati's caliber on a short week while the Bengals are coming off a bye doesn't look like a recipe for success. Take Cincinnati to win on the road as a 1-point favorite.