Miami hosts Florida State at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday night (ABC) at Sun Life Stadium. The Seminoles are 21-0 SU in their last 21 games against ACC opponents and 4-0 SU in their last four games against the Hurricanes.
Florida State is a 1.5-point road favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Miami does pose a real threat this week, but the Seminoles always find a way to win and are too tough to pass up on at only -1.5.
Even when the Seminoles are down, they are never really out. Trailing 21-0 on the road against Louisville two games ago with the crowd pumped up and the offense struggling, Florida State scored a late touchdown at the end of the first half and went on to outscore Louisville 35-10 in the second half for a 42-31 win.
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The Seminoles aren't nearly as polished on either side of the ball as they were a year ago, as their 2-7 ATS record indicates, but enough can't be said about Florida State's ability to dig deep and win ugly.
OddsShark Computer Prediction: Florida State 33.5, Miami 27.9
The Hurricanes are trending in the right direction with a 3-0 SU and ATS record over their last three games, fueled by 44 points per game on offense over that stretch. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is playing well, but the team's rock on offense is running back Duke Johnson.
Johnson has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last eight games and has rushed for 100 yards or more in each of his last five. Miami is 6-1 SU in its last seven conference home games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference home games.
With an offense capable of hanging with Florida State and what should be a rabid home crowd behind them, the Hurricanes have a shot at earning a program-invigorating upset over the Seminoles this Saturday.
But Florida State is not afraid to play on the road after 11 straight road wins, and at only -1.5, the battle-tested Seminoles are the pick.