Dolphins vs. Patriots 2015 odds: New England big TNF betting favorite

The New England Patriots are 20-0 straight up and 13-5-2 against the spread in their last 20 home games played in the month of October. The Patriots will play their final October home game of 2015 this Thursday night hosting the Miami Dolphins.

New England is a nine-point betting favorite at home according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. This will mark the sixth time in seven games this season that the Patriots are favored by at least a touchdown.

Plenty of hype surrounded the New York Jets defense going into last week's game against New England, but it turned out to be no match for Tom Brady's arm. The Patriots' running backs combined for only five carries as Brady threw the ball 54 times, racking up 355 passing yards and two passing touchdowns while rushing for another. With 16 touchdown passes and only one interception this season, Brady, now the favorite on the odds to win the NFL MVP award for a third time, is playing at another level.

Since 2001, New England is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in 14 home games against Miami per the OddsShark NFL Database.

With a new head coach and a new level of focus, the Miami Dolphins have come out of their bye week with two straight blowout wins. A 38-10 win over Tennessee and a 44-26 win over Houston brought Miami to 3-3 SU and ATS on the season.

Of course, those two wins came against two teams well under .500 on the season. Miami will try to prove itself against much tougher competition this week and enters the game with a 5-1 ATS record in its last six games as a road underdog in October.

Thursday night's total is set at 51.5 points. The OVER is 4-1 in New England's last five games and 4-1 in Miami's last five games as well.

Brady is 8-0 in his career on Thursday nights, but the Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football at home. Miami's improved play on offense and overall talent suggests that the Dolphins can keep this game close and cover as a big road underdog, even if an outright upset is highly unlikely.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

When: Thursday, October 29, 8:25 p.m. ET

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Betting Line / Total: New England -9 / 51.5 Points

Dolphins vs. Patriots OddsShark Matchup Report