The Michigan State Spartans are just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. The Spartans will try to buck that trend and win as a small favorite when they host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday.
Michigan State is a four-point favorite at home, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. This line opened as a pick 'em but quickly shot up to Michigan State -3.5 before eventually setting in at Michigan State -4.
The Spartans put together an excellent campaign in 2014 with an 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS record. Michigan State's only losses last season came against Oregon and Ohio State. This year, the Spartans will have the chance to avenge both of those losses starting with the Ducks this Saturday.
The team kicked its season off with a 37-24 win over Western Michigan on the road last week, failing to cover the spread as a 16-point favorite. Michigan State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home, according to the OddsShark College Football Database.
Oregon is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in three meetings with Michigan State since 1998, but the home team won the game outright in each of those outings. In last season's 46-27 win over Michigan State, the Ducks ran away with the game in the second half, outscoring the Spartans 28-3 after trailing 24-18 going into the half.
The Ducks looked shaky on defense in allowing 42 points to Eastern Washington last week, but the offense was fast and effective as usual in racking up 61 points.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four road games against Big Ten teams and 4-2 in Oregon's last six games overall. Saturday's total for the Ducks vs. Spartans betting matchup is going off at 67.5.
The Oregon Ducks have been one of the nation's best and most consistent teams over the last five years with a 60-8 SU record over that span. Michigan State has won at least 11 games four times over the last five seasons including a 13-1 SU campaign in 2013.
The speed of Oregon and Ohio State was too much for Michigan State to handle last year, so it will be interesting to see how the Spartans handle it in 2015.
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan State Spartans
When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich.
Betting Line / Total: Michigan State -4 / 67.5 points