:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51217377/usa-today-9512634.0.jpg)
The New England Patriots are 12-1 straight up in their last 13 games as a double-digit favorite, but are just 5-8 against the spread over that stretch. The Patriots will get another chance to cover as a big favorite this Sunday on the road against the Cleveland Browns.
New England is a 10.5-point favorite at FirstEnergy Stadium at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In their last five games as a favorite of 10 points or more on the road, the Patriots are 0-5 ATS.
The Patriots did an excellent job of surviving the storm without Tom Brady, opening their season with a 3-1 SU and ATS record to give Brady the chance to return with the division lead in the AFC East.
New England had opened with an impressive 3-0 SU and ATS record, but last week against the Buffalo Bills with Jacoby Brissett's limited passing attack the Patriots offense never got off the ground in a 16-0 loss at home. That could be bad news for Cleveland, who will now have to face an angrier Patriots squad.
Bill Belichick has been a master of preparing the Patriots in bounceback games over the years. New England is a remarkable 42-8 SU in its last 50 games coming off a loss per the OddsShark NFL Database.
Betting Line / Total: New England -10.5 / 46.5 Points
Trend: The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Browns.
Trend: The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as underdog.
The Browns have followed up an 0-4 SU and ATS preseason with an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS start to the regular season, hanging around in games but never finding a way to close them out late.
Dating back to last season, the Browns are now just 1-14 SU and 3-11-1 ATS over their last 15 games overall. This will be Cleveland's 10th game as a double-digit home underdog since the 2000 season, with the team going 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the previous nine.
Sunday's total is set at 46.5 points. The OVER is 12-5 in New England's last 17 games played in the month of October.
Some backers might be licking their chops at the rare opportunity to get an NFL team at home as a double-digit dog. But squaring off against an angry Patriots team that was just shut out and has Brady and Rob Ninkovich returning from suspensions with chips on their shoulders, this doesn't look on paper to be a fun spot for the Browns.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns Preview
When: Sunday, October 9, 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio