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March Madness upset trends: What lower seeds most frequently make it past first weekend?

Some double-digit seeds are more likely than others to break brackets and play past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last 20 years, No. 10 seeds are 34-46 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in their matchups against No. 7 seeds. Beyond just winning their first game, this year's double-digit seeds will be trying to break brackets open with trips to the Sweet 16 and beyond.

Despite being a 10-seed, Virginia Commonwealth is going off as a 4.5-point betting favorite against No. 7 Oregon State at sportsbooks monitored by With No. 10 Pittsburgh at +1.5 against Wisconsin and No. 10 Syracuse at +1 against Dayton, this year's 10-seeds look very competitive.

Of the 34 No. 10 seeds to win in the first round over the last 20 seasons, 18 have gone on to win their second game to advance to the Sweet 16.

No. 12 seeds have picked up wins in their matchups with No. 5 seeds 44 times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, but only 12 of those first-round winners went on to win again in the second round.

Even over the last three NCAA Tournaments that have seen 12-seeds go 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in the first round, those eight winners went just 1-7 SU in their next game.

Historically, No. 11 seeds fare much better in the second round than No. 12 seeds. There have been 43 No. 11 seeds to top No. 6 seeds since 1985, and nearly half of those winners went on to win their second-round matchup with 20 of the 43 advancing to the Sweet 16.

Since 1996, 11-seeds are 11-18 SU in the second round and 12-seeds are 11-21 SU.

The last 20 years have seen five 13-seeds, one 14-seed, and one 15-seed advance to the Sweet 16. The No. 14 seed was Chattanooga back in 1997, while the No. 15 seed was much more recent in 2013's Florida Gulf Coast Eagles.

After escaping the opening weekend with a trip to the Sweet 16, things get much rougher for double-digit seeds. In the last 20 NCAA Tournaments, only nine double-digit seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight; four 10-seeds, four 11-seeds, and one 12-seed.

Two of the 11-seeds got to the Final Four before their March Madness run came to an end.