The New England Patriots are 9-2 straight up and 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a home underdog. The Patriots will look to punish the oddsmakers as an underdog again this Thursday night hosting the Houston Texans.
New England is a 1-point underdog on Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Houston is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 2.5 points or less.
The Patriots appeared to be well on their way to a rout against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday as Jimmy Garoppolo threw three early touchdown passes to give New England a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. But when a shoulder injury knocked Garoppolo out of the game, the offense went on to score only 10 more points as the Patriots held on for a 31-24 win and cover.
Third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw nine passes and is slated to be this week's starter with Garoppolo injured and Tom Brady still serving his suspension. According to website PredictionMachine.com, that drops New England's win expectancy by about six percent.
In eight games as an underdog since the start of the 2014 season, New England is 7-1 SU and ATS, per the OddsShark NFL Database. The Patriots are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against teams with winning records.
Betting Line / Total: Houston -1 / 40.5 Points
Trend: The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Patriots.
Trend: The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
The Texans have looked sharp in early wins over Chicago and Kansas City, starting the season off 2-0 SU and ATS and improving to 5-0 SU and ATS over their last five regular season games. The defense has been particularly impressive over that five-game stretch, allowing only 9.6 points per game.
A road win in New England, even against an injury-hampered Patriots team, would solidify Houston's spot as a contender in the AFC at 3-0. The Texans are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
Thursday's total is set at 40.5 points. The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven games between these two teams.
New England has already put itself in position to succeed this season with wins in two of the four games that Brady is set to miss. If the Patriots can find a way to win at home against Houston with their third-string quarterback, the Texans could prove to be the team to beat this season.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
When: Thursday, Sept. 22, 8:25 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.