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Transfer rumour analysis: Andre Schurrle to Chelsea, and will Luis Suarez really leave Liverpool?

Analysing the likelihood of the latest transfer rumours, including Luis Suarez's proposed move to Real Madrid, and Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham's activity.

Chris Brunskill

Andre Schurrle to Chelsea

This appears to be picking up some steam, with the Bayer general manager telling the press recently that an arrangement was in place for the player to move to Stamford Bridge for a fee reported to be around £20m.

It's not quite certain, however, because one other condition is that Kevin de Bruyne will move on loan to Leverkusen for a season, so that ties in quite nicely to....

Kevin de Bruyne to Bayer Leverkusen (on loan)

Conditional as part of the Schurrle deal, if reports are to be believed, but there is one potential sticking point: nobody is really sure if José Mourinho wants De Bruyne in his squad or not. If he does, then the deal may be put off. The Belgian is hardly a raw youngster, playing plenty of first-team games in the Bundesliga last season and would surely be a valuable member of the Blues' squad were he to stay.

Verdict: Likely, but not quite a done deal until Mourinho's position is clarified. The only certain thing is that the rumours about Dortmund buying De Bruyne out right are now definitely dead.

Edinson Cavani to Chelsea, Fernando Torres to Napoli

Rafael Benitez likes Fernando Torres, That was, if certain people are to be believed, the rationale behind his Chelsea appointment, and to his credit, the former Liverpool man did manage to get a whole league goal out of him. What that means is, apparently, he will be so desperate for a second reunion that Chelsea will offer €30m and the beleaguered striker in order to secure Edinson Cavani.

Somehow, we don't think so. Napoli are unlikely to demolish their wage structure for Fernando Torres, and a more likely and sensible target for them would be Edin Dzeko, whose club also have an interest in Cavani. Chelsea are certainly in the running for the Uruguayan, but the notion of Torres moving to the San Paolo is crazy talk.

Verdict: Would only happen if Aureliano de Laurentiis and Rafael Benitez were certifiably insa- well, it's almost certainly not going to happen.

Luis Suarez to Real Madrid

Marca go in big on this, claiming that a deal has been struck between the two parties, and that Real will meet his release clause of €40m. The problem, however, is there's some slight uncertainty over what Suarez's release clause is, if it exists, and that the publication themselves don't even seem sure, also stressing that the deal is not concluded.

This is not unforeseeable, but Suarez's much-published recent interview seemed to be hedging his bets, providing a convenient excuse should the opportunity to leave materialise. The release clause issue may prove to be moot, as it would be no surprise if Liverpool accepted a £40m bid even if there was no clause obliging them to do so. Lots of clubs are looking for strikers, so a big bid could be on the way, but it's very unlikely that any deal for him is in anything other than the preliminary stages. This is one to watch for later on in the window.

Verdict: Could happen, but a done deal? Not a chance.

Miralem Pjanic to Tottenham Hotspur

This rumour comes from Sky Italia, and so should be taken with a considerable pinch of salt, even if it was reported that the interest had gone so far as an official bid from Spurs. Nonetheless, it's hard to see the club tying up a deal for a position they're not absolutely desperate for until they sort out their striker problem - especially since the two would be linked, given that it would be difficult to fit Pjanic and two strikers in the same team.

Ultimately, the fact that no other source had got wind of an official bid from Tottenham makes this one seem slightly fanciful, at least at present.

Verdict: A bit of a shot in the dark. We're not saying it won't happen, but be skeptical.

Clement Grenier to Arsenal

This rumour has stepped up a gear, but it's been under the surface for some time. Grenier was reportedly invited to an Arsenal game earlier in the season, and Arsene Wenger has openly spoken about the player recently. Their interest is almost certainly concrete, and it depends on how much the club are willing to spend, which is difficult to ascertain. Lyon are likely to put up a fight to keep hold of him, but if Arsenal are serious, they can tie it up.

Verdict: Likely, assuming Arsenal are serious about improving this year and aren't going to try and do things on the cheap again.