If you watched the United States men’s national team’s match against Panama on Tuesday night, you probably came away frustrated. The Americans were far from their best in the 1-1 draw and only grabbed the point off the back of a couple of brilliant players — Christian Pulisic, who made an incredible assist, and Tim Howard, who was flawless in goal. Besides those two, there wasn’t a lot to write home about.
But it was an away draw, which was all the Americans needed to feel OK about their chances to make the 2018 World Cup in Russia. The Panamanians are one of the USMNT’s top rivals for a top-three spot in the CONCACAF Hexagonal, and they still need to come to the United States. If the USMNT beats Panama at home in October, they will have taken four points out of six off a team they’re competing with, which is good enough.
That’s not to say the USMNT is in excellent shape. Losses to Mexico and Costa Rica to kick off the final round of qualifying were alarming enough that U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati thought he had to make a managerial change to ensure results turned around instantly. They have, with a win over Honduras and a draw away to Los Canaleros, but the Americans aren’t done digging out of their hole.
Here’s what the USMNT is facing on their road to make the World Cup.
The USMNT’s path to third place in the Hex
Over the five cycles that CONCACAF has used the Hexagonal World Cup qualifying format, the average third-place team has finished on 15.6 points. No third-place team has ever won more than 17 points. The USMNT currently has four points, so to reach that target of 17, they’d need to take 13 points from their remaining six matches.
One of those games is against Mexico at Estadio Azteca, and should probably be written off as a loss for the purposes of this exercise. Three of those games are at home, and those matches are all virtual must-wins. If the USMNT loses to Mexico and wins all of their home games, they’d need to get four more points from their other two road matches to reach to 17 points.
Those games are against Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago, two beatable opponents, though there’s no such thing as an easy road game in CONCACAF. The USMNT lost away to Honduras during the last qualifying cycle and pulled off a 3-2 comeback win in San Pedro Sula back in 2009. In the previous round of qualifying, in 2015, the USMNT drew 0-0 away to T&T in one of the worst games we’ve ever had the displeasure of watching.
Most likely path to third place
Wins: vs. T&T, vs. Costa Rica, vs. Panama, at T&T
Draws: at Honduras
Losses: at Mexico
End result: 17 points
It should be noted that there appears to be little difference between the third- and sixth-place teams in CONCACAF at the moment. It’s very possible that they keep cannibalizing each other and 15 points ends up being enough for a World Cup place.
What if the USMNT finishes in 4th place?
The fourth-place team in CONCACAF goes into an intercontinental playoff with the fifth-place team in Asian qualifying. The average fourth-place hex team ends on 13.2 points, though this number is highly variable from cycle to cycle. This year, it’s tough to envision the third- and fourth-placed teams being separated by more than a point or two. The best ever fourth-place team had 16 points, while Mexico only needed 11 points to make the intercontinental playoff during 2014 qualifying.
Right now, it’s impossible to pin down a likely opponent for the fourth-place CONCACAF team. All of Iran, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Australia are possible matchups, with Iran and Japan looking most likely to avoid the playoff. That’s a real grab-bag of teams, both in talent and playing styles. There’s no guarantee of a good (or bad) matchup for the United States in the intercontinental playoff if they finished fourth in the Hex.
So, what are the chances the USMNT misses the World Cup?
Still reasonably high, but the USMNT’s home win against Honduras and away draw to Panama were enough to make them favorites to finish third, even if dropping points against Los Canaleros dampened your spirits a little.
ESPN’s SPI has the United States at 82 percent to qualify for the World Cup, partially based on their results from previous years and how you might expect them to do going forward. This projection expects Panama, Honduras, and T&T to do enough damage to each other that the USMNT probably won’t need 17 points to finish third.
Four points from two qualifiers moves #USMNT from 6th to 4th in the Hex and raised its SPI qualification projection from 54% to 82%. pic.twitter.com/hfmJU40LYE
— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) March 29, 2017
But the Americans are still one really bad slip-up away from being in deep trouble. These odds will probably look the same after June’s two games — at home against T&T and away to Mexico — but a home qualifier against Costa Rica in September is hardly a gimme win. The USMNT wouldn’t even need to play that poorly to walk away from that game and the one in Honduras four days later with just one point. Those are tough enough matches that a couple of bad bounces or bad calls by the officials could make the difference.
The USMNT is now favored to get to the World Cup, but they still have a lot of work left to do. Those two November losses to Mexico and Costa Rica put them in a serious hole.