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- Last Login: Oct 15, 2021, 1:39pm EDT
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Correa certainly has a personality
I can understand why the Yankees – or at least some players – would be hesitant to embrace that personality. He’s probably not their number one choice by any means, but I can’t imagine they’d be too upset if he signed there.
Here’s the link
He doesn’t outright refuse to move to the outfield. But he demonstratively declares himself a shortstop, no questions asked. I really see SDP getting upgrades elsewhere than shortstop this winter.
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
I saw an article that posits NY "prefers" other options to Correa (namely Seager, as a lefty) but nothing concrete
This early in the winter, it’s essentially pointless to speculate on specific landing spots. NY can’t even call Correa yet since he’s still playing, after all!
And yes, if everything else shakes out like Bunyon suggested, we instantly become Correa’s "only" landing spot (I assume that’s what
doesn’t that make Detroit the most likely landing spot for the Tigers?meant anyways).
Agreed that it should be a fascinating offseason – really the first one with this many young, premier players since I’ve started following baseball closely. And to top it off, the team I care about most should be involved!
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
No way Correa goes to San Diego. Tatis is a SS, no matter how 2021 ended.
I can’t argue with the rest of the logic – there are dozens of ways this shakes out, and the Seager/Story/Taylor section all makes sense on a number of levels. But San Diego isn’t going to spend another $300M on a shortstop. Tatis isn’t staying in the outfield – he’s already come out and made it clear he’s coming back to the infield for 2022 and beyond.
"(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he’s gonna have a shortstop," [Tatis Jr.] said, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). "That’s the plan so far, and I’m not planning on moving for a very long time from there."When your $340M franchise icon says he’s a shortstop, well, you tend to listen. Padres definitely make a splash (Nick Castellanos looks nice in the OF, for instance, or Schwarber perhaps) but not in the middle infield. Plus, 3 $300M ‘infielders’ seems pretty unlikely, all things considered. So if Correa’s options come down to SD and Detroit, well… I like our odds in this hypothetical
Comment 1 rec
I don't see why Detroit should play for someone else's table scraps
MLBTR put out a DeJong article recently, and I liked their characterization of the DeJong situation.
With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option
DeJong is not a difference maker in the same vein as the top-tier SS. He is a capable fallback option if the others refuse to come for what Detroit offers, and that’s unfortunately a situation the Tigers could find themselves in. But he cannot be the number one, top priority option. For starters, he likely won’t rebound from 2021 – he hasn’t been more than barely average offensively since his rookie year, which came with a .349 BABIP and a fairly large .037 gap between his "expected" and "actual" results. Since then, he’s been average or worse, and pretty much earned it all. A competent fallback option, to be sure, but not worth prioritizing.
To top it off, the player you propose leaving a gap for is, uh… not worth it at this juncture. I expect Kreidler to get significant playing time in the majors, but I don’t expect him to be a difference maker. His .374 BABIP was in the 94th percentile in the Eastern League among those with 150+ at bats, placing 15th out of 270 in the field. Essentially, the stat best used to indicate sustainability was a massive outlier. There’s no reason to expect that to continue, nor to translate to MLB success – names ahead of him include MLB stalwarts such as Franchy Cordero, Greg Allen, Jacob Robson and (ironically) Riley Greene. While being high on that list isn’t a harbinger of MLB failure, it isn’t the most positive indicator either. For a player like Kreidler, with no track record of offensive success, it’s a lot harder to assume his newfound success continues moving forward than for a player like Greene, who has demonstrated an exceptional ability to barrel the ball. The most likely explanation is that Kreidler took a small step forward, got a little lucky, and combined, posted huge numbers in a small AAA sample.
So yeah, not a terrible backup plan. But I’ll be upset if Detroit passes up an impact bat at the biggest position of need just to get DeJong.
Comment 3 replies
Well... Dave Roberts could easily be ousted, opening an attractive Dodger managerial gig
I haven’t seen anything suggesting he’s on the hot seat, but there’s been a lot of talk about his pitching management this October. I have no idea if the upper levels of the LAD front office trust Roberts or not, but his series of bullpen games and overuse of his core SP is being heavily criticized in baseball circles. Plus, his contract only runs through 2022, so it would only be an early departure by 1 year. He just hasn’t had the post season success expected by such a super team – unfairly or otherwise, it seems to be "World Series or bust" for managers in high-profile manager spots.
That’s all hypothetical of course… but Lombard would likely be a leading candidate for an LAD managerial gig, right?
Comment 4 replies
I would also take Lange over Jimenez if/when it comes down to it.
Garret is interesting. He was lights out in 2020, and pretty crap in 2021. His fastball and slider location were both higher in 2021 than 2020, sitting in the middle third of the plate more so than the bottom third and below. It looks like he just got hit harder because he made more mistakes. Most tellingly, his "meatball %" (possibly the best named statistic ever) was up to 8.3%. No idea if there’s a mechanics change, or a mentality shift, or what, responsible for that, but it’s pretty obvious he threw too many non-competitive pitches.
If Cinci takes that deal, I’m probably ok with it. I don’t know if they would take it, but it makes sense theoretically on a few levels.
Comment 1 reply
The last paragraph really hits the nail on the head
It’s too soon to know if he’ll keep being good, but he was quietly very good in the second half. I expect him to have a solid 2022 mostly in the Detroit bullpen.
The other thing to keep in mind is he obviously earned Hinch’s trust down the stretch. He knows a lot more than I do, so if he trusts Lange , it’s good enough for me.
Yeah spell check is not always that helpful, and I know I didn’t list everyone - more a task of making the point there’s a lot of good people involved now.
Thanks for being smarter than the tech we lean on so heavily knuckles.
Comment 1 reply, 1 rec
I'm very curious why you care to defend Avila so vehemently
Very few people here – including the ones you are currently debating with – have made such drastic claims regarding Hinch and Avila. Hinch being in the room, and having influence, does not discredit Avila at all. Rather, it adds to his prestige because he has shown the wisdom to listen to advisors – a point which has been made, and you’ve summarily disregarded in full to continue this.
You’re arguing for the sake of arguing, and playing white knight in a battle of like minded individuals quibbling over the credit earned by two millionaires who don’t know any of us exist, without any real inside knowledge of the specifics being quibbled over! There’s really no need for such drama, when the facts that matter are as follows:
1. Detroit has Hinch and Avila, Fetter and Lombard, Sartori and Garkin.
2. Detroit is likely better for it that they have these pieces in place in the upper levels of the organization.
We know nothing beyond those two statements, but that’s enough for us to reasonably assume Detroit is further along than they were at this time last year, and it’s enough to reasonably extrapolate that much of this positive change coincides with Hinch’s tenure in Detroit. Anything beyond that is unknowable to the public.
Comment 1 reply, 4 recs
That's a completely unprecedented offseason, and frankly, the type of foolishness that landed Detroit in hot water before 2016.
No team in MLB history has spent north of $600M on free agency in a single winter, which is the insanity you’re proposing. Seager and Bryant are near locks for $250M each, pushing the winter to an unprecedented $500M on two contracts alone. Add in a supplemental $20M for Conforto (not an unreasonable estimation, given he likely receives a QO worth $18M+ from the Mets) and another $100M total for the two starting pitchers – likely an underestimate, assuming one is in the Stroman/Gausman/Ray tier to match Seager and Bryant – and we’re at $620M with conservative estimates on a pitcher and Conforto, who likely receives a multi year deal if he rejects the QO, as he would have to in order to receive an offer from Detroit. No thanks.
The closest any team has come would be the Phillies the year they signed Harper, during which they spent north of $400M total on Free Agency alone. They’ve gone a combined 191-193 (.495 winning percentage) in the three years following, all the while bemoaning a lack of financial freedom to make pre-season and mid-season acquisitions to address obvious issues like center field and a leaky bullpen. If history teaches you anything, let it be that you cannot build a team in free agency. You can supplement it, as the Astros have. You can enhance it, as the Blue Jays have. You can destroy it, as the Phillies have. But you cannot build it.
Sources, since you’re big on asking for those: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tools/offseason/2019/ (for the offseason spending); https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/season/2021/view (for the total record since Harper’s winter). You can check MLBTR for the Phillie’s quotes on financial shortcomings in recent years, and MLBTR and MLB.com have top Free Agent rankings and will be posting guestimates for contracts in the coming weeks. Suffice it to say, there is no reason to throw away 3+ draft picks (Seager, Conforto and at least one SP will have QOs) and $600M+ in a single winter. It will not help the team the way you anticipate.
Comment 1 reply, 1 rec
So I'm actually looking into that now, and the results are fascinating.
Essentially, I’m looking at the percentage of non-first round picks in the drafts 2016-2018 (Avila’s first three drafts, and the latest with a realistic chance of players being MLB ready, if they’ll ever be) by specific teams (I’m not doing all of MLB because that would take too long) to make the majors in any capacity, for any duration, with any club. I’m not taking the time to check WAR for the group as well, because the point of the draft’s later rounds is adding "MLB talent" to the club, not "high-quality MLB talent". High quality talent can come from other avenues, but growing the supplemental pieces yourself sure eases the burden.
LA Dodgers: 16/117 = 13%. These players range from Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May to Zack Reks. No, I don’t know who that is, either.
Houston Astros: 10/117 = 10%. Jake(s) Rogers and Meyers both came after the first round. Interestingly, 0 from 2018 have made it.
Miami Marlins: 4/116 = 3%. That seems brutally low, but in reality….
Pittsburgh Pirates: 5/120 = 4%… it seems like bad teams are just bad at drafting, too.
Detroit Tigers: 8/115 = 7%. Bryan Garcia and Schreiber fit this squad, as does the obvious one, Skubal.
The Tigers faired surprisingly well in this little exercise. I picked teams from either end of the success spectrum to compare with, rather than the entirety of MLB because I’m a little lazy but hey, it’s a start. This little sample certainly encourages me to believe that drafting is a skill, and the Tigers appear to be about middle of the road in that regard. Maybe that number ticks up with the post-2018 drafts (I imagine it does, given time) but the early results sure indicate the Tigers have an "OK" success rate after the first round, but could certainly stand to improve.
Clearing the books is huge if your team acts like a small market club
It doesn’t really matter was the actual market size is if the owner demands no progress until the books are cleared. Avila couldn’t spend much more money in 2021 than Neader (Tampa Bay’s head executive) because their owners provided a similar budget. Hard to argue Detroit and Tampa Bay have similar market sizes, but it’s all about how the owner wants to spend.
Comment 3 replies, 1 rec
Thanks. So 2, maybe 3 obviously promising picks outside the first round
With a score of highly regarded picks that haven’t had the time to do anything more than meet expectations (Workman, Keith, Madden, etc). If those guys pan out – or show the likelihood to pan out and are summarily traded – boom, there’s a pipeline of young talent. I think some of those will pan out. So far though, 1 per draft is more of a trickle, and it’s tough to sustain anything on a trickle.
Now, I’m confident in the player development staff like I haven’t been in a while. We seem to have a better mix of prospects, rather than toolsy Hill and Meadows types and hard throwing righties, and an overall higher quality of mid tier prospect. I think there’s drafted talent to work with, and personnel equipped to work with that talent. But it needs to happen or else Detroit is a flash in the pan. The IFA is a great way to get more talent, and more talent means more success.
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
I’ll amend that statement a little
More like "once you get the infrastructure in place, you don’t need to tank again". Let’s not forget how Houston got the infrastructure in place in the first place.
If you get the infrastructure in place, meaning clear the books, establish a farm with a pipeline producing good players, and make smart personal movements (trades and contracts), then there’s no reason to get in over your head like Mike and DD did. Pair that with a cast of smart, innovative individuals behind the scenes, and you can even get an edge without spending major cash (re: Tampa Bay). Spend a little cash with that, you get Houston. Spend a lot of cash with that, you get the Dodgers. It’s a nice recipe for success, no doubt!
If Detroit hits on any of their IFA signings, well, it’d be a boon. So far nobody outside the first round has separated themselves but Dingler under Avila’s tenure (was Skubal Avila? I don’t know dates anymore…). Getting young productivity from outside the draft is critical to a team’s long term success. That’s my (2nd) biggest point of concern right now (behind SS) – establishing the personnel and framework to turn IFA lottery tickets into MLB-caliber capital, either for trades or Tiger talent.
Well that’s declarative. Me likey!
If you want to win, you’ve gotta have winners throughout the organization. Seager and Correa fit that bill more than the other top tier SS, but oh well, any should fit. It maybe suggests the kids get a few mentors this winter, not just a SS. Question is where do they fit? We’ll see I suppose.
Interesting that he mentioned two big trade pieces. It’s not an avenue the Tigers seem likely to heavily pursue this winter, but you never know. Maybe a Zunino type catcher gets too expensive somewhere and we catch a steal – we should totally leverage our (lack of) salary obligations in trade negotiations. "Oh, you’re paying X player too much? We’ll happily take that off your hands, and have you heard of this Clemens kid? I heard his dad was pretty good, back in the day"…
See Verlander, Justin; Darvish, Yu, and Iglesias, Rasiel as recent exemplars of getting good players for bad prospect hauls and some serious cash.