- Joined: Jun 1, 2017
- Last Login: Sep 14, 2021, 4:05pm EDT
- Comments: 20
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Yeah that's how most passing offenses should be built, IMO
Alabama last year had arguably the best passing offense of all time and they would RPO you to death until you got impatient and then get you on a double move deep
Not saying Notre Dame has the same talent level as ’Bama but applying a similar strategy would make sense. If the goal is to never let anything get over your head Mayer and Avery Davis will just take all the YAC they can get underneath
Pressure statistics are one of the least unstable and non-predictive metrics there are
He actually had a higher Yards/Attempt and PFF Grade on Pressured dropbacks vs. Clean ones against Toledo (8.8 and 69.6 vs. 6.8 and 56.5). He just didn’t have a good game
Comment 1 reply, 1 rec
Yeah they only blitzed on 11 of 41 dropbacks
But Coan’s Time to Throw was nearly identical on non-blitzes and blitzes (2.79 vs 2.73)
Toledo’s pressure rate was actually the same on both non-blitzes and blitzes, which makes sense when looking at how long he held onto the ball for.
Not sure if the reason he held onto the ball was because everyone is covered or he was hesitant to pull the trigger, but you are onto something.
Comment 3 recs
That’s part of PFF’s "secret sauce" but they have explained it in some articles and podcasts.
Some examples off of the top of my head with how a Quarterback would be credited with a pressure instead of the line would be
1. Holding on to the ball too long and asking the line to block much longer than needed, probably the most common
2. Running into pressure. E.g. a QB tries to break the pocket even though the edge is blocked well and runs himself into trouble
Comment 3 replies, 2 recs
The offensive line has been poor when run-blocking. It's not true that they are a bad pass-blocking unit
According to PFF
14th Pass Block Grade
95th Run Block Grade
Offensive Line credited with 11 Pressures and 3 Sacks allowed, 27% Pressure Rate (average is around 30%)
Coan was charged with 3 Pressures and 3 Sacks, meaning he brought those on himself through no fault of the offensive line. The problem is his Time to Throw went from 2.49 during a clean drop back to 3.32 when pressured.
Notre Dame can easily run a pass-first offense with that level of blocking. Coan just needs to get the ball out quicker
Comment 1 rec
Yeah that's why Toledo averaged 6.8 Yards Per Carry on 6-Man Boxes but negative EPA and a 17% Success Rate
The Yards/Carry reflects the big run but on a play-by-play basis it’s working, as EPA and Success Rate shows. And if Kelly is right that the problem is more due to tackling problems, which in theory should be an easy fix, and not scheme then hopefully there are fewer big plays.
Comment 1 rec
That’s not necessarily the case all of the time
A lot of sportsbooks aren’t that interested in the public money because they beat most of the public in the long run so they aren’t worried if some games are more weighted to one side.
The majority of lines get moved because smart money is coming in on one side and they’re trying to limit their exposure to proven winners who hurt their bottom line significantly.
Lastly, most models have Notre Dame as overpriced this game, both on the moneyline and against the spread.