- Joined: Mar 27, 2017
- Last Login: Nov 27, 2021, 2:11pm EST
- Posts: 12
- Comments: 224
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I like it
Seems like a good addition to guide the rotation. A ~.700 OPS would be gravy too. Love that it didn’t cost us any super high end prospects and love that it likely heralds the end of Alfaro as C #1.
I like it for the Pirates too though. Thompson is serviceable in a rotation right now. Any guy who can stay healthy and be serviceable in a MLB rotation will have real value. If he gives them ~150 innings of ~4.50 ERA, he’ll be a great chip for them. They also picked up a hard throwing pitcher with decent results and a toolsy outfielder with pedigree, and coming off his best year.
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There aren’t many real opportunities to add a game changer like Buxton. He can single handedly turn games around with his defense and his bat.
Plus, if the Athletic reports from this summer on the contract negotiations were accurate (no MN beat writers refuted it and Star Trib columnist and long time beat reporter Lavelle Neal blasted the Twins for not upping the incentives), then an extension should be manageable.
He’s a potential superstar when healthy, and available for a manageable price. Chances like this don’t come along often and now is the time to take a chance.
Comment 1 reply
The health caveats are obvious, but Buxton is worth the risk and this is such a rare opportunity to acquire a superstar for pennies on the dollar.
The contract concerns aren’t a significant concern for me. The Athletic had the terms as 7 years and $73 million…and the only deal breaker was Buxton wanted bigger incentives! MN upped the offer to $80 million guaranteed, but didn’t add to the incentives. Being from MN, I’m hoping the Twins pony up, but if they don’t, The Marlins could conceivably be a perfect spot. Even with the injury concerns, a ~$12 million a year deal isn’t going to torpedo even a low spending team like Miami. Plus, if he is hitting his incentives, he’s an absolute bargain. If he isn’t hitting his incentives and only playing half his games, he’s still very likely to be a 2 WAR player, which would still be providing the Marlins with surplus value.
Bottom line, if they can get Buxton and sign him to the MN deal that was reportedly close to being agreed upon last summer, they absolutely should do it. He only has 1 year left, so the acquisition cost shouldn’t be too huge. Start with Elieser, add in a quality non 40 man pitcher (like Dax Fulton or McCambley), and then a marginal player or 2.
My proposed trade:
Marlins get: Buxton
Twins get: Elieser Hernandez, Dax Fulton, OF Tanner Allen
Extension: 7 year, $84 million guaranteed, with $2.5 million per year in playing time incentives and $.5 million per year in performance incentives. Total max contract: 7 years, $105 million.
For a PTBNL or cash, very little downside, other than tying up a 40 man spot on a journeyman reliever. That being said, if that’s all the Rays were able to get for him, he might be able to clear waivers if they DFA him if/when they bring someone in.
Guenther, Campbell, Alfaro, Isan, Brinson, and Harrison all seem like they’d be no loss from the 40 man. Okert is a very likely regression candidate too. Plenty of guys that they can get off the 40 man if/when they add pieces.
Not really equivalent
Berrios had one year left of arb and was projected for 11 million, so he basically agreed to a 6 year 120 million for his free agency years, while being a year out from free agency.
Sandy has 3 arb years and a fair evaluation for his 3 arb year ~$24 million IMO. Any extension would tack on free agency years after that and likely get a discount on Berrios’ $20 per year, as Sandy is further from free agency and there is more risk from the Marlins side.
Something like 5 years $55 million with an option for an additional $20 million year with a $5 million buyout is probably about right. Basically then, for 5 years, Sandy would be guaranteed $60 million and the Marlins would have the ability to control him for 6 years. Sandy would be locking in life changing money and protecting against a significant arm injury dampening his earning potential, while giving the Marlins a potential discount over 3 of his free agency years.
We can quibble over the specific names and targets, but a bold, aggressive offseason is very much needed. $105 million as a target payroll shouldn’t be out of reach, but I feel like it is. With good, cheap pitching in tow, it’s time to spend to maximize the window of the pitching staff.
My two favorite moves are the extensions. Identify your core, sign them long term, and build around them. Sandy and Jazz should both provide significant surplus value over the term of their deals.
Going from Elieser Hernandez to Bassit is a huge step up, not just in bottom line results, but in durability too.
I’d love to get Hader for that package, but I doubt the Brew Crew do that. They have incredible pitching and need bats to supplement their world series caliber pitching, and this trade doesn’t help them in the near term.
I don’t love trading Lewin, but if it results in a catcher, I’m down. Even if they didn’t have a true long term 1b in the pipeline, 1b is a position you should be able to piece meal it together with moderately priced vets for a few years. I’d much rather trade Aguilar for something and play Lewin at 1st every day. Between his power and defense, he has the potential to be a big plus (especially if his defense really is as good as the numbers say it was last year).
I’m lukewarm on trading Anderson too. With a return to good health, he seems like a safe bet for a 3+ WAR player and this may be selling low on him, although Harris is definitely intriguing.
Comment 2 replies
I have 5 things that would make this offseason a failure from my perspective
1. Anything under $90 million payroll next year is an offseason fail for me. I know 90 is a big step up, but if not now, then when?
With the new TV deal and naming rights secured, payroll HAS to go up. If the fanbase and media accept a 70ish million payroll, this franchise will never try and spend.
2. Any offseason with no core pieces signed long term is a fail for me.
Sign Sandy, BA, Jazz, Pablo, Meyer, or whoever is part of your no kidding core to some extensions. Until you lock up and keep your core talent, fans will always assume you’re still cheap and going to hang onto guys until they get expensive (and good) and then trade them.
3. Any offseason without adding 3 meaningful bats/starters, with one being a catcher, is a fail for me (the catcher doesn’t have to be a meaningful bat, if they bring a lot defensively, like Stallings).
This team needs an at least 2 outfielders and a catcher. De La Cruz is more of a 4th OF IMO while Cooper should bounce between 1B and DH primarily and spend a little time in the OF. Jazz may wind up in CF, but then 2nd is a hole…unless Miggy slides over and they actually investigate the SS crop. BA could play RF, but then 3B is a hole. Catcher needs new blood. I’m partial to trading for a Jays young catcher like Kirk or Moreno (although I don’t think Moreno would be available), but wouldn’t mind Garver or Stallings for the right price.
4. Any offseason that results in the GM once again saying she knew the offense would struggle is a fail.
Kim Ng’s comments about how she "never really saw the Marlins having a high scoring offense" is still unacceptable to me. Coming off a playoff appearance and going into a season with a offense you don’t trust/like is borderline dereliction of duty. She can’t bank on internal improvements alone to right this ship or to rely solely on a promising young starting pitching rotation to lead this team to the playoffs.
5. Any offseason that primarily relies on sacrificing good young players via trade rather than spending money to upgrade the team, is a fail for me.
The last point is a philosophical approach that I believe in. When you’re never going to be in the top half of spending like the Rays, Marlins, or A’s, you need to make trades and sign long term extensions early to set yourself up for long term success. That being said, the Marlins can’t solely go out and trade their minor league surplus to improve, they need to spend money in free agency. The only thing free agency costs an organization is money (and potentially a draft pick). Trades cost teams talent in order to acquire talent. Some teams like Tampa always seem to do well in trades, but that’s hard to consistently nail. Sherman is a billionaire and the team did well in the TV deal and naming rights. It’s time for him to start redirecting some of that towards the product on the field and they need to be players in the free agent market. I’m all for trading Aguilar, Bleier, and Elisier if they net you a meaningful piece, but I don’t want to see them take a sledgehammer to the organizational prospect depth in order to acquire incremental upgrades, when similar incremental upgrades are available in FA for nothing more than money.
Comment 1 rec
I hope you’re going to do a follow on "offseason success" article too.
While I’d agree that this scenario would be a fail, I’m far more pessimistic than you. I don’t think they’ll be as active as you’ve laid out here.
As the Miggy news was coming out I mentioned I was worried they would use the extension as a justification for not dipping into the SS market, even though he’s in his mid thirties. Yesterday, Ng said "Given that we signed Miguel [Rojas] for two years, I think we’re pretty solid there. I think we have other needs where that’s where we’re focused." You said "Using this to justify no SS interest would be such an insult to the fans’ intelligence" which is exactly what Ng’s comment feels like. There are great shortstop options available, and that doesn’t happen often. The high quantity of high quality should somewhat depress some of the values, so I’d be angry if they don’t get involved.
As MN-Marlins fan, I don’t hate the Lopez deal. Seems fair to both sides, if even a bit favorable to Miami. I just don’t think they deal Lewis and Miranda, with a potential rebuild staring at them and those two being the potential CF and 3B/1B of the future. Kepler would be a great fit although he’s a much better RF than CF.
My issue would be the targets of Garcia, Jansen, Harrison, and Miller. Seems too long for Garcia and I’m not on board with paying a reliever that money. Harrison isn’t a huge upgrade on Berti (granted he was much better this last year).
As far as the other trades, the Stallings trade doesn’t tickle my fancy for the price. I also wouldn’t be enamored with seemingly selling low on Anderson and Cooper.
Questions for Keith
Who is a young catcher you would advise the Marlins front office to target and what would be a fair package to get that player?
Looking at the Marlins org, which position player in the minor leagues or young major league position players do you feel are the best bets to be consistent 3-4+ WAR players?
Top likely Rule V candidates leaguewide?
Early candidates for the Marlins 2022 first round pick?