- Joined: May 17, 2013
- Last Login: Oct 10, 2021, 8:47pm EDT
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Geez, you're right. Sorry, brainfart on my part
Are you nuts?
like isn’t there fatigue of watching the exact same teams face each other?
Did you watch the NHL last year? I loved watching Toronto play MTL, OTT, WIN, CAL, EDM, and VAN – I hardly ever got to see Connor McDavid play before, and last year, I saw him a bunch of times. Enough times to get familiar with the EDM team, and even dislike a couple of players. You can’t do that when you only see a team twice a year.
The best thing about the AL East is nearly half our games are against some of the best teams in baseball. We get great baseball day after day, year after year. Think the fans in the AL Central or the NL East get to do that?
Comment 3 replies, 2 recs
My first and last post on this topic
Blaming is so counter-productive. There are so many points where you can say "if only" – if only Semien didn’t let that easy ground ball go through him, if only Lou had caught that fly ball, if only Teo hadn’t tried to stretch that double, etc. etc. etc. A team has roughly 10,000 total outs over a season (offence and defence); it’s easy to find a few stinkers in there. In business, we say separate the people from the problem. A first step is to see what’s out of whack.
We have all discussed run differential (RD) during the season. We finished a full 19 games below our expected W/L. 19 GAMES. As an analyst, I look at that and say "Hmm.. we underperformed our expectation by over 20%, and as a result, missed the playoffs." That is the worst underperformance by any team in the major leagues this year. The next worst, Atlanta underperformed by 7 games, but still won their division handily. Seattle, OTOH, outperformed by 15 games, and just missed the dance.
I looked back at the AL from 2000 to 2021. Seattle’s +15 and Toronto’s -19 are the highest divergences by far; the previous highs were +11, -12. Most years, it was between +/-9 for all teams. So Toronto’s -19 is 50% higher than the previous high, and more than twice as far as away from the mean as the average year’s max. So that’s a question that I’d like answered: why were we historically divergent in this area this year?
Another area we’ve discussed at length is our poor record in Manfredball. Part of that was the merry-go-round at 3rd. But it seemed to me that this played out a couple of times: the other team advanced their runner to 3rd, and scored him on an out. We tried a couple of feeble bunt attempts, and struck out, and then flied out to the track to end the game. No steals, no hit-and-run, no nothing. That’s another question area: why were we so bad fundamentally against small ball – still not good, IMHO – and why didn’t it seem to improve over the season?
And of course, relief pitching. Oakland had 76 Quality Starts from their staff; we had 68. Boston has 39, Tampa 33. So we handed over games that weren’t blowouts to our pen frequently. Our pen’s record was 30-31, with 34 saves. Tampa was 58-32, with 42 saves. How much better were Tampa’s relievers than ours?
Not a huge lot, it turns out. We walked 1 more batter per 9 – yes that’s per nine, I know it seems more like ‘per inning’ – and gave up 1.3 HR/9 vs TBR’s 1.0/9. But we struck out nearly as many, our BABIP was the lowest in the league, and we stranded 73.4% of runners, 3rd in the league, and just a tad behind TBR’s 74.6%. We had the 4th highest GB%, against just a point behind the leaders, at 45.3%; TBR was 4 pts behind that. I happy to concede that TBR had a better bullpen, but was it that much better that their pen can record a .600 winning percentage, while we were below .500?
We were 40-17 in day games; 51-54 at night. Almost all playoff games are at night. This issue has to be addressed if this team is to move on in post-season play next year. Is it a vision thing?
To sum up:
- We were historically bad at reaching our expected won/loss, underperforming by a 20-year record -19 games.
- We were worse than our division rivals at Manfredball
- Poor fundamentals at small ball throughout the season
- Bottom of the league performance out of a bullpen that posted top to middle statistics
Inescapable conclusion to me is these are all linked to the manager. They are not all his fault, but all of them are somewhat his fault. These are all mental things, so perhaps Chuck can learn. He’s probably going to get one more year. I hope he studies these weaknesses, and becomes better at them.
I like our chances next year
A whole year at home, and presumably a whole year of healthy Springer.
On offense: we lose Semien, replace him with Biggio, and I’m giving Espy a shot to win the job at 3rd. The OF is set with Teo, George and Lou; whether we keep Corey and Randall, or go with youth is up for grabs. Maybe a tad less power, probably a bit higher OBP.
I hope we keep Ray. But even if we don’t, Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Matz, Stripling, and Pearson isn’t bad. Our pitching staff was 4th overall, our hitters 3rd. I think we can do great things next year.
You mean Chuck, don't you?
He put Chatwood in. Repeatedly.
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Ivermectin worked great in Uttar Pradesh, India
240 million people, cases nose dived after the Indian gov’t distributed kits of Vit C and D, Zinc, and Ivermectin.
"The state has also been registering a steep decline in the number of Active COVID Cases as the figure has dropped from a high of 310,783 in April to 8,986 now, a remarkable reduction by 97.10 percent."
Simple, cheap effective drug that has helped nearly eliminate river blindness in the Americas, and is making big progress in Africa. The continued blackout on news against Ivermectin by Western media is a conspiracy verging on criminal.
Don't know why that middle paragraph got repeated; didn't show up when I tried to edit
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
I’ve said before, this is Peak Semien. It’s doubtful he’ll get better; the question is, how well does he decline? He’s not a high average or high OBP player, not now, and not previously in his career. His value is his newfound power stroke at age 28/29covid/30. I wonder if we can find a player with a comparable batting profile?
Hmm.. how about Jose Bautista, like Semien a decent but not fab hitter until he figured out how to hit homers in September 2009. He hit 54, and 43, and then averaged 28 HR for the next 7 years. He was a very good hitter for us because, unlike Marcus, Jose developed a batting eye along with his stroke, and his OBP remained high over that seven year span. Marcus’ OBP is only 0.010 over his career average this year. Anyone signing him to a high-priced, 4+ year contract will be vastly overpaying perhaps as soon as next year.
Hmm.. how about Jose Bautista, like Semien a decent but not fab hitter until he figured out how to hit homers in September 2009. He hit 54, and 43, and then averaged 28 HR for the next 7 years. He was a very good hitter for us because, unlike Marcus, Jose developed a batting eye along with his stroke, and his OBP remained high over that seven year span. Marcus’ OBP is only 0.010 over his career average this year. Anyone signing him to a high-priced, 4+ year contract will be vastly overpaying perhaps as soon as next year.There will be a bidding war for Semien this winter. He will want to go somewhere warmer where he can play shortstop. I will wish him well when that time comes, but I hope we get to see him play for us a few more games this year.
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A month ago, I said 92 wins would get us in
One of the losses against the Twins? One against the Yanks? So many games the last month that we seemed within a hair of winning that slipped away..
Praying for Washington. Soto’s due, isn’t he?
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Odor didn't score it; Wade did
Cash has to walk him, no?
Walk judge, pitch to Stanton
Hope for K, pop up, or DP
Yankee fans saying they hope Sox win, they want no part of Toronto
Comment 1 reply, 1 rec
Are you worried about this game?
Doesn’t matter if we win by 10 or 1, but we need a loss somewhere else.
wrong side of the tracks
Cruz k's for Tampa
Tampa scores on a WP/PB
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Oh for pity's sake
He’s a young guy, we have lots of guys to pitch tomorrow when we really might need them, and he needs to throw. Perfect zero leverage time to get him such much needed throwing.
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