Jesse A Anderson
- Joined: Jun 6, 2013
- Last Login: Sep 20, 2021, 4:15pm EDT
- Posts: 28
- Comments: 3,967
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Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
The Scherzer idea feels a bit too much of an "all the eggs in one basket" for me.
He could pitch another 5 years, but any major injury will be the end of his career. I can’t stomach spending 20-25 million a year on that personally.
Comment 1 reply
I think it has to be trades to get a good CF.
Or starting pitcher, for that matter.
We have some SP depth to deal from, McBroom is a piece (not a big piece, but a piece). Lopez, some bullpen, one of our backup catching depth… we have things to trade.
I haven’t done a deep dive into players who might be available, but the Royals need a front-end starter and either instant all-star performances by one of guys in AAA (BWJ, Melendez, Isbel, Pratto) or to trade for an all-star player.
Replied in the wrong thread, deleted.
Again, mostly agreeing.
I don’t think 2018 has as much weight as you do, that’s basically it.
Comment 1 reply, 3 recs
Let's just agree a lot has to improve.
Sorting by WAR (which… is hardly perfect but close enough for a discussion this macro-oriented), the Royals are 24th in baseball for position players and 21st for pitching staff.
If there isn’t drastic improvement on everywhere, offense, defense and pitching, they aren’t going to contend. The details probably won’t matter much because I don’t particularly trust DM and co to navigate next off season any better than they have the last half dozen or so.
Can we start hoping for the 2021 draft class to mature to get us into contention yet?
Comment 1 reply
You don't gotta sell me on the "DM is bad".
I’m in full agreement with you. I also disagree strongly with your take about them needing an entire rotation from 2018.
Keller is having a bad year (kind of balancing his luck, he’s been super lucky in his career and is real unlucky this year) but he’s still good enough to be in a rotation. Hernandez looks good though he’s already at a career high in terms of innings pitched. That’s 2.
Duffy probably comes back next year, but even if so the Royals have to get someone else. They need to sign (or more likely trade for) not an Ace but a good front of the rotation arm.
There’s also the argument that a team can make the playoffs with an average rotation. The Royals had a 4.25 xFIP as a staff in 2015, right at average (14th). With Lopez emerging as a real player (and who could have seen that coming?), Whit not falling of a cliff and Mondesi being healthy, along with the next wave (Pratto, BWJ, Melendez, Isbel, etc) are probably more likely to be the make-or-break. The rotation will probably work itself out if DM (and GMJP?) actually bring in an arm or two.
Anyone who actually expects all of the 2018 class so far to stick in the majors is going to be sorely disappointed, but the Royals don’t need it.
Comment 1 reply, 7 recs
I think at this point the draft WAS a huge success.
I remember a time when Jeremy Guthrie got a 25 million deal to pitch with a 4.5 xFIP, and the Royals have a handful of pitchers that are that good as a floor at major league minimum.
Just need one of them to latch on as an averageish pitcher and one to be a good bullpen piece and the draft will have been a success and at this point that feels safe. Any hype over the draft producing more than that was wishful thinking in the first place.
Comment 1 reply, 3 recs
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
Really pulling for Foster Griffin
Probably more than I’ve ever pulled for a minor leaguer before.
To make your MLB debut on your birthday, throwing 1.2 scoreless innings, then having to leave and get Tommy John’s surgery?
I hope it’s with the Royals but even more than that I hope he has a long, prosperous career.
Comment 2 replies, 5 recs
I've been a big fan of Nicky.
I’ve never considered what his numbers this season could mean in terms of trade potential.
If a team has a big hole in the middle of their infield and can afford to risk him regressing at the plate somewhat he could be very valuable.
It just comes down to what you think about Mondesi and Merrifield. Personally, Merrifield’s been a worse hitter every season since 2018 (by wRC+), and I expect that trend to continue. Mondesi hasn’t been healthy in his career… I feel like you need three of BWJ, Mondesi ,Whit and Nicky… not sure if Nicky is who I’d want to get rid of.
Salvy will need to average about 2 wins per year for his contract to pay for itself.
That’s… possible. I’d say that’s maybe 60/40 to undershoot that number as he ages.
I’m actually a lot more bullish on his deal now than I was before the season, when I thought it was almost definite he would not due to his hitting and aging.
Comment 10 recs
You know how to get RR to stop bitching about bad players?
Play good players.
Comment 1 reply, 4 recs
This is who Hunter Dozier is.
If you dig into his numbers at all you can see this was entirely predictable.
Dozier’s hitting for his career before 2019:
.228/.279/.388, a wRC+ of 78
Combined 2020/2021 to date:
.209/.294/.359 also a RC+ of 78.
His breakout in 2019 was an illusion propped up by 2 months of insanity:
2019 through the end of May:
.314/.398/.589 wRC+ of 154
The rest of the year:
.260/.319/.485 or a wRC+ of 106.
You can’t just throw out 2019, or the 2 months where he hit like a God, but you also can’t throw out the other 5 seasons of play where he’s hit like Alcides Escobar (career numbers below):
.258/.294/.345 wRC+ of 71
I voted no on the poll
But it’s close. He’s clearly having a massively good season, but is he deserving of top 10 MVP? IDK.
Comment 3 replies, 5 recs
Just here to toot my own horn a little bit again about Lopez and Salvy.
Wrote an article over a year ago about Lopez becoming a fan favorite (face of the franchise I said!)
I said after last season Salvy would have a massive offensive season this year. He had almost 2 years off and had LOTS of time to put into the batting cages and study/work with others on his swing.
I also said I thought he would fall off dramatically moving forward, but I’m not as certain about that now. I didn’t think he’d be THIS good, and if he really did put in a lot of time and effort when he was injured/recovering/covid shortened season/etc working on his swing he might be able to carry something similar to this for a few more years. I hope so, anyways.