- Joined: Aug 13, 2011
- Last Login: Oct 6, 2021, 9:32pm EDT
- Posts: 40
- Comments: 12,342
Logan is the guy you saw that one time on the internet. He's also a regular contributor at Lookout Landing.
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Comment 2 replies
To be clear, this isn't what I'm advocating for.
I’m just trying to illustrate the point that getting back to 90 is gonna be hard, since even if they get all these free agents and Jarred / Julio do well, they will only barely get there. If, as you suggest, they do less, they’ll probably project for 85-86.
Comment 1 reply
Yes, this projects 3 WAR from Jarred and 2 from Julio.
Comment 2 replies, 4 recs
Yeah, hate to say it, but it's actually pretty hard to get this roster back to 90 wins for 2022.
I have a little back-of-the-napkin offseason plan spreadsheet and after signing…
- Kris Bryant
- Marcus Semien
- Marcus Stroman
plus some depth pickups like Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, a backup C (Barnhart?) and a backup CF (Margot?)…
…the Mariners would just barely project for 90 wins.
Comment 2 replies, 12 recs
Yes, a trade for one of the Rays' two CFs (likely Margot, the less heralded / more backuppy one) seems pretty obvious
The roster fit is obvious. After an entire year of Moore, Bauers, and Long in LF I don’t wanna hear about having too many outfielders. As much as we love Kyle Lewis, Jerry’s right — anything he does next year is gravy. Jarred, Julio, and Jake are all questionable-to-bad in CF and Haniger’s an RF / DH. The team needs a true CF, if only as injury insurance / late inning defensive replacement / spot starter, and Margot and Kiermaier both have the defensive chops.
We know the Rays like the Mariners’ minor league pitchers to turn into multi-inning relievers, and Margot in Arb3 / Kiermaier’s last year are pretty rich for Tampa’s blood. It feels like something along the lines of Levi Stoudt for Manuel Margot should do it.
Comment 1 reply, 2 recs
No way do the Padres and their aggressive ownership, 1.5 years after shoving all in, sell one of their best players for money
Comment 9 recs
Tom Wilhelmsen style
Comment 1 rec
For whatever reason I think of Florida players as "I would never choose Seattle" and New York players as "coastal cities are cool".
It is, of course, pure and wild speculation based only on my own preferences about where to live.
Comment 1 reply, 8 recs
Remember that time he was on the IL, went to finish school, and watched the Blue Jays in class?
A beautiful moment: https://twitter.com/STR0/status/628252047452844032
Comment 2 replies, 1 rec
I'm going to be surprised if they can fill all of their OF, IF, and SP needs via free agency.
Obviously the offseason plan starts by going (ahem) hat in hand to Scherzer, Bryant, Correa, Corey Seager, Semien, Story, etc. and begging them to take your money. If any of those guys will sign with you, you should do it and figure out the roster later. (I’d guess Bryant, Semien and Story are the ones who might actually say yes to the right contract.) But the odds are low, given all the other teams in competition, the fact that Story may want to stay at shortstop, etc.
Of the pitchers, the best one that I think can be reasonably hoped for is Stroman. He’s been the most consistent of the non-Scherzer FA, he’s not from somewhere bonkers far away from Seattle, and unlike Gausman he should want to get the fuck away from his current team. Especially if they go after a defensive upgrade at 3B like Chapman or Story, since Stroman is so good at generating weak contact, he could really benefit from playing in front of an infield with multiple Gold Glovers.
But overall I think for big acquisitions we’re likely looking at ~1.25 free agents and ~1.75 trades.
Comment 1 reply
I think that Cal Raleigh is probably going to be a solid catcher, and I also think they need a backup plan for 2022
I mean, just, like, in case of injury. They clearly don’t seem to think Torrens can catch (I think he’s gone via trade) and the only other catcher on the 40-man is José Godoy. Personally I’d like to see them bring in a catcher who can add ~1 WAR, just to let Raleigh start in AAA if he still looks rough in spring training, and so that someone else knows the pitching staff at all in case Raleigh or Murphy goes down. A Carlos Ruiz type.
Bonus points if he also gets in animal-listing contests pregame.
Comment 11 recs
Jose Ramirez does not go to Seattle unless Julio Rodriguez or Noelvi Marte is in the deal.
In general, these "pile of guys who aren’t good enough for our roster" for "your superstar" trades never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever happen. (For reference, Baseball Trade Values has your proposal as the Mariners trading $20MM of value for the Indians’ $67MM).
A more realistic deal might be Noelvi Marte and Abraham Toro for Jose Ramirez.
Comment 1 reply
It's more that the individual components of a good hitter have been there, just not at the same time.
Minor league K/BB rates were fine. He can definitely hit the ball hard enough to have real power. He’s shown he can have a league average contact rate and a better than league average O-Swing% for periods of time — but when he was doing that, the power wasn’t there, so what we need to see is him putting those together.
Comment 2 replies, 12 recs
I feel that this conversation would end the instant the Rays asked another team what they'd give up for Glasnow.
Neander: "Hey, the Mariners are offering Evan White for Tyler Glasnow, can you beat that?"
[any GM]: "Sure, we’ll give you [any 45 FV prospect who doesn’t have hip injuries and a $20M guaranteed contract]"
I still believe in Evan White, modulo the hip thing. He’s shown many of the component skills of a good hitter, even while struggling. The hip thing is suuuuuuuuuuper scary, though, and is the kind of injury that scuttles careers. As much as I really like the guy I think other teams should definitely think of him as a negative-value asset. The best bet for Seattle is probably to let him heal and figure out how to hit in AAA.
Comment 27 recs
The best baseball game I've ever been to.
Mitch fucking Haniger.
Comment 4 replies, 10 recs
Comment 1 reply, 25 recs
Ouch. I was there tonight and that sucked. Not getting Torrens home from third was totally deflating.
I cut Kelenic some slack there, since the lefty reliever was brought in specifically to get him out, and he worked a good count. Moore gets a break from me too, ‘cause that was ball four (ugh, robots!). But Murphy absolutely cannot strike out there against a lefty reliever with a 5 ERA. The whole point of Murphy’s lineup placement is to punish people who go after Kelenic with lefty relievers.
On the plus side, they’re still in this thing as long as they keep winning. I actually had this thought yesterday but didn’t post it for fear of jinxing: yesterday was such a good day that it probably meant the Mariners can lose one (which is good, ‘cause they just lost one). At this point, if Seattle wins out, they’ll be in Game 163 as long as Boston loses one or New York loses both. Per ZiPS, the odds of Boston winning both are only ~1/3, and the odds of New York not losing both are about 3/4, so the odds of neither team blowing it are actually only about 26%. So the Mariners are 74% likely to get Game 163 if they win both of the next 2. Those are pretty good odds, actually. Like I’ve said before, I think they had to go 5-1 for game 163 and 6-0 to win it outright — well, they’re 3-1 now.
Here’s hoping they don’t let the fans down again these next two nights. Even getting eliminated by AL East wins would be fine. We just don’t need yet another Lollablueza.
Do the Red Sox even want to make the playoffs?
Comment 2 recs
Good on you for staying safe!
I’m sure the game thread here will also be an absolute blast.
Comment 1 reply, 1 rec
I'll be in the 300s tonight.
I would be interested too!
Comment 1 reply, 21 recs
Tomorrow, it's October, and the Mariners will keep playing as long as they keep winning.
Incredible. What a gift from Baltimore.
As much as I’d rather have seen the Yankees lose (for spiritual reasons), this was probably the best case scenario day. With the Jays having the softest remaining schedule, it’s a huge luxury that now even if they pick up a game that only gets them to a tiebreaker.
Roll damn M’s.
Comment 6 replies, 1 rec
So who's gonna be at the game tonight?
I’ll be in attendance — I’m up in Seattle for the week and catching as much baseball as I can. I’d be very interested in saying hello to any other LLers in the building one of these nights!