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- Last Login: Sep 27, 2021, 3:03pm EDT
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True, but he's scuffled a bit lately too
If Gorman can stay in Memphis next year to start the season and fine tune some things, it is a good sign for the team’s depth.
Someone is going to struggle next year because baseball is that way. It would be great to have some internal replacements.
Those guys are all different
Rosario and Crawford were major prospects (3 and 29 overall) and are still under team control. I wouldn’t consider them easily acquired. Galvis has never had an average hitting season. Iglesias is worse than Sosa, as is Elvis Andrus (who is making $15M this year). Miguel Rojas is odd, as he was never able to hit until he turned 30. Good for him, but I don’t know what to make of it.
Of course, if your premise is Sosa is below average, then yes, replacing him in free agency for cheap is simple. You can find 1.2 WAR players for cheap all over at any position. You may get good defense, but you’ll get bad hitting.
Sosa is demonstrating the ability to be an average to above hitter while also being a very good defender. That extra 10% hitting ability is valuable. Only 12 SS with 300 or more PAs have hit better than Sosa this year. FG thinks DeJong is a better defender, which seems weird. If you gave Sosa DeJong’s defensive numbers (or gave DeJong Sosa’s hitting), you have a 2.5+ fWAR player at their current PAs (318 and 384).
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I'm not sure those are all comparable players
Kyle Farmer is 31, didn’t make it to AAA until 26 and he has five years of 70s wRC+s. Though he has put up a basically average year this year.
Alcantara is the same age as Sosa, but on his 3rd organization. He has a big defensive reputation and a record of not hitting until this year in AAA. He has a career 72 wRC+, and neither FG or BR think much of his season.
Wily Adames, who just turned 26, had a "sosa-like" season in 2019 when he put up 3 fWAR. He was the 11th ranked prospect in baseball with a 60FV grade. In 1645 PAs, over 4 years, he’s put up 9.8 fWAR/11bWAR. His wRC+ have been 110, 99, 126, and 121 this year. Adames has put up 4fwar this year. The trade for Adames did seem light, and I don’t know why the Rays were so happy to move him (though he was off to a bad start). His rough start could be because he had a generational talent breathing down his neck. I am bitter the Cardinals didn’t trade for him.
Pete Kozma was good defensively but couldn’t hit. He was a 50 wRC+ guy. Jose Iglesias is likely what you have in mind – good defense and 85-95 wRC+ish hitter. (87 career). Since age 23, he’s never put up negative value. He’s 31 and has 13.9 fWAR.
Certainly Iglesias is a defense first shortstop who doesn’t hit well. He’s above replacement level, but he peaks at average. He played for $3M this year, so he’s returned more than the 1/2 win that contract predicted.
Sosa is better than Farmer or Kozma, and he hits better than Iglesias or Alcantara. Sosa is not as good a hitter as Adames, but he is a better defender, I think. Baseball Prospectus says Sosa’s DRC+ is 103, which means his hitting isn’t at all a fluke. That’s a good sign. BP’s warp is 1.4 in 318 PAs, so basically a 3 win player over a full season.
Maybe there are more guys like Sosa sitting around waiting for chances. It would seem that way to us because we have Delvin Perez hanging in there. I don’t think anyone thinks Sosa is a 6 bWAR player, unless he has a monster year. He’s been good this year, and it looks legitimate.
This is a good thing, because it gives the club options in an important free agent year. I don’t really consider Seager a SS, but he’s who I’d sign if I could (I probably couldn’t). The Cards can focus on a bat without worrying about filling SS. Or they can move a MIF knowing they have depth. This will hopefully let them shore up their pitching. They have young shortstops in the system, which helps. If Sosa/DeJong fade, the club has options.
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Zips said he wouldn't be a good hitter therefore, he will not be a good hitter.
He was a league average hitter despite always being young for his leagues and he underwent a swing change in the upper minors to add more power. He has a nice max exit velocity and he hits a fair number of balls hard. He’s really fast and really good at defense.
We also underrated Sosa because we hadn’t seen much of him even though he’d been around forever. We thought Rondon and Moroff were threatening him. Now that we’ve seen Rondon and Sosa, it is pretty clear they aren’t comparable. Sosa is a way better defender and runner. Looking back, Sosa’s spot on the roster was probably pretty safe.
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Is in extrapolating to war per 600 PAs. That’s not reliable in all cases.
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I'm not sure that's right
There are lots of guys who are solid fielders who can’t hit, but there are lots of guys who can hit but can’t play SS. Eugenio Suarez was an interesting example. He couldn’t stick at SS even though he hit much better than a regular SS.
Sergio Alcantara is also a bad example to compare with Sosa. Alcantara was rated faster, better at fielding and a better arm than Sosa. Maybe Alcantara learns to hit, maybe not. Sosa had much better hitting tools, and once again scouts were way off on his defense grades and speed. "has better hands/motion than gold glover" but is a 55 fielder with 50 speed and a 50 arm. Alcantara was a 55 speed, 60 fielder and 70 arm. So he should be an awesome SS defensively, but he is such a bad hitter he only plays because the Cubs are bad.
I assume the Cubs are hoping these non-prospects like Wisdom, Schwindel, Ortega and Alcantara can put up some ok numbers and then they can trade them at the deadline next year. Plus, they likely can use them to avoid signing anyone this winter. I don’t think a contending team is starting Alcantara.
Comment 3 recs
Interesting discussion on the infield fly rule, but the result was acceptable
SkyRicEsq said above that the IF call by the umpire is for the benefit of the runners. I didn’t think the umpire had discretion to decline to call an infield fly unless there was some question that it wasn’t on the infield (the Kozma play). I can’t ever remember seeing an infield fly shorter than 90 feet not called and dropped. It would be silly to make it that way because then you’d let them all drop and hope the umpire forgets.
The rule is designed to protect the runners, not the fielders. The batting team is vulnerable because they could face the double play. By not catching an infield fly, the fielding team gets whatever happens. The rule doesn’t protect the fielding team.
The Cards should have known it was an IF. The umpires are only there to make calls, not to advise the players that they might have misunderstood a call or rule. The Cubs messed up, but they are allowed to, and theoretically they could have been bluffing by trying to advance. Dejong made the big mistake by throwing to second. Dejong needed to understand that the ball was IF and that was one out. It was understandable that he got confused when he saw a runner heading to third and Arenado picked the ball up and threw it to him (DeJong) at third. The runner would only keep running if it was a force out (meaning the IF didn’t happen and the batter wasn’t out). So Dejong tagged the bag and threw to second. If Dejong had known the batter was out, he would have just tagged the runner.
Just because Dejong does something wrong, the umpire doesn’t have a duty to correct him. It would be the same as if the umpire at second had told O’Neill to try harder to go to third so he can call obstruction. That would be an improper insertion of the umpire into the game.
Everything that happened was very understandable. The 2B Umpire is the one who made the mistake, and of course both teams, but the rule protects the running team.
The third base umpire was reasonable not to call the IF earlier. The ball looked foul, and the league’s best third baseman was tracking it foul. The 3B Umpire is watching the ball and Arenado, with some attention to fair/foul. The fact the ball is going to be fair happens at the last second, and the ump calls it. It wasn’t perfect, but it was fine by the 3B ump.
The 3B Umpire didn’t call the runner out at 3rd. He made the correct call. DeJong just assumed the runner was out.
DeJong’s mistake was understandable, but it was still a mistake. He should have known and tagged the runner.
The 2B Umpire made the mistake when he called the runner out at 2nd. That was a goof. Doing so reinforced to Edman he did not need to tag the runner and reinforced to the runner that it was a force play. So it was reasonable for Edman to not tag the runner and the runner to overrun the bag.
What is the remedy?
Now, even though the umpires made a mistake at 2B, the Cubs baserunners were foolish to go. They didn’t recognize the IF call, and if they did, then they were foolish to try to advance.
How would we think about it if DeJong had tagged the runner and he was out? We’d be criticizing the Cubs, but also questioning the application of the rule which was intended to prevent that. I’d say the 2B Umpire erred by failing to call the IF himself, since it is for the runner’s protection.
The best remedy would have been to send the runners to the original bases. Players on both teams made mistakes based on the flukiness of the play and the difficulty (or failure) of the umpires to communicate the IF call. Letting the runners advance is a worse solution, but it is a better solution than a double play because the rule is there to prevent the double play.
Bad job to the 2B Umpire, to the runners, and to DeJong and Edman (who believed it was a force play). All the stuff after the ump calling the out at 2B is kind of pointless. Even if the runner was wrong to overrun the bag (he was), if the umpire had not called him out, he could have figured it out and tried to get back on the bag. We don’t know what would have happened there.
- From Viva El Birdos
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A man can dream though.
Well played, Frog!
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This is actually awesome
The NFL will lose at trial, but the whole trial will consist of laying appeal issues. They’ll appeal it all the way to the US Supreme Court before they settle. It will take a long time.
People keep saying the City could get over a billion. I’ll believe that when I see it. To me, this case is going to be the public exposure of how ridiculously sports inflate their benefits to regions.
Let’s say the City could get $1B after attorney’s fees (sweet, sweet attorney fees). The city could work with the NFL to develop some of the downtrodden communities in St. Louis. They could make it a big deal and get other things involved – AB and other local business. Putting the money into the community like that would save a lot of face for the NFL and hopefully let them make back a lot of the money. Meanwhile, rejuvenating the worst parts of the city would do a ton of good for the city in the long run.
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It's a good thing
I mean, can I just get a site that allows me to look at BR, FG, and BP’s stats at once with a good interface and an easy way mix/match. wRC+ with DRS? sure, here you go. You know, one website to rule them all.
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Wasn’t judging if you didn’t.
Comment 6 recs
Let's be reasonable here
Pizza of all kinds is good. It can go bad, but no pizza is inherently bad. Pizzas only become bad when the choices don’t fit the target diner.
Imo’s style pizza is way different than Chicago’s pizza-casserole style. New York style is different too. They all have strengths and weaknesses and people all have individual preferences. That’s not the pizza’s fault.
Pizza is a wonderful thing and we should be thankful for it. We can’t let the sins of the Cubs and their fans (and the Blackhawks) poison good pizza. I refuse to give them that power.